For guys like me that (attempt to) predict the NFL Draft, free agency is a nightmare. As I was updating my mock on Wednesday night, I found a common theme: veteran QB’s. How so? There are roughly five teams in the top 10 that need starting QB’s. This is where the problem begins. I have watched three Auburn games, two Missouri games, including an ’09 matchup, re-watched two Washington games, and two Arkansas games in the last week. Now if I’m the GM of Buffalo, Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Washington I have a major question marks with each of the signal callers on each team if I’m about to select them in the top 10. Let’s start here and quickly breakdown the teams.
Buffalo holds the 3rd pick, but I don’t see them selecting any of the top QB’s. They will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick and draft a developmental guy later in the draft.
Arizona holds the 5th pick but Ken Wisenhunt knows he won’t be around long enough to see Gabbert or Newton develop into an NFL QB. The Cardinals have to go after a veteran like Donovan McNabb or trade for Kevin Kolb/Kyle Orton.
San Francisco is drafting 7th but Harbaugh will wait at least one more year to select a rookie signal caller. They are prime for picking up a veteran QB and if they listen to Vernon Davis, it will be the landing spot for McNabb. This could be the surprising spot for the first QB if Harbaugh likes any.
Tennessee has the 8th pick in the draft. This one will come down to Bud Adams vs. Jeff Fisher. Fisher knows he won’t be around to see one of the rookies develop. I think Fisher wins out (like Vince Young saga) and they pick up a veteran or trade for Kolb/Orton.
Washington selects 10th and could be a landing spot for the first QB taken in the draft. Shanahan has a longer leash and a track record with rookie QB’s. I could see Gabbert or Newton going here.
Aside from that potential landing spots for the top 4 QB’s would be Minnesota, Miami, or Seattle. It could be a long night lasting until Friday’s second round for at least one of Gabbert, Newton, Locker, Mallett.
Also, it is a great day to be a backup QB or veteran cast off looking for a home. Some of these guys may walk into good starting spots. Taking out Buffalo (they are sticking with Fitzpatrick), San Francisco and Arizona play in a winnable division. Tennessee has some solid pieces along with Minnesota and Miami. These teams will be vying for the services of Kolb, McNabb, Orton and can be had for below market value. Also, look for teams to look to trade for serviceable backups around the league.