Archive for the ‘Blog’ Category

Blog – Quarterbacks killed the 2011 Draft

Posted by Brad On January – 14 – 2011

For guys like me that (attempt to) predict the NFL Draft, free agency is a nightmare. As I was updating my mock on Wednesday night, I found a common theme: veteran QB’s. How so? There are roughly five teams in the top 10 that need starting QB’s. This is where the problem begins. I have watched three Auburn games, two Missouri games, including an ’09 matchup, re-watched two Washington games, and two Arkansas games in the last week. Now if I’m the GM of Buffalo, Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Washington I have a major question marks with each of the signal callers on each team if I’m about to select them in the top 10. Let’s start here and quickly breakdown the teams.

Buffalo holds the 3rd pick, but I don’t see them selecting any of the top QB’s. They will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick and draft a developmental guy later in the draft.

Arizona holds the 5th pick but Ken Wisenhunt knows he won’t be around long enough to see Gabbert or Newton develop into an NFL QB. The Cardinals have to go after a veteran like Donovan McNabb or trade for Kevin Kolb/Kyle Orton.

San Francisco is drafting 7th but Harbaugh will wait at least one more year to select a rookie signal caller. They are prime for picking up a veteran QB and if they listen to Vernon Davis, it will be the landing spot for McNabb. This could be the surprising spot for the first QB if Harbaugh likes any.

Tennessee has the 8th pick in the draft. This one will come down to Bud Adams vs. Jeff Fisher. Fisher knows he won’t be around to see one of the rookies develop. I think Fisher wins out (like Vince Young saga) and they pick up a veteran or trade for Kolb/Orton.

Washington selects 10th and could be a landing spot for the first QB taken in the draft. Shanahan has a longer leash and a track record with rookie QB’s. I could see Gabbert or Newton going here.

Aside from that potential landing spots for the top 4 QB’s would be Minnesota, Miami, or Seattle. It could be a long night lasting until Friday’s second round for at least one of Gabbert, Newton, Locker, Mallett.

Also, it is a great day to be a backup QB or veteran cast off looking for a home. Some of these guys may walk into good starting spots. Taking out Buffalo (they are sticking with Fitzpatrick), San Francisco and Arizona play in a winnable division. Tennessee has some solid pieces along with Minnesota and Miami. These teams will be vying for the services of Kolb, McNabb, Orton and can be had for below market value. Also, look for teams to look to trade for serviceable backups around the league.

Blog – Who Said CB’s Can’t Be Selected in the Top Five?

Posted by Brad On January – 11 – 2011

I was debating this question the other day and it caused me to do an hour worth of research and be exhausted at work the next day.

Since 1990 eight cornerbacks have been taken in the top five of the NFL Draft (Terence Newman, Quentin Jammer, Charles Woodson, Shawn Springs, Bryant Westbrook, Terrell Buckley, Bruce Pickens, and Todd Lyght). This is a staggering number considering the value placed on corners throughout the league. Contracts for corners have exploded to astronomical proportions. When you put the names to the number (8) you can see why this is a fact. Of those players listed only Charles Woodson and Terence Newman have been selected to multiple Pro Bowls. Not what you expect out a top-five pick if you are an NFL GM.

The reason this internal debate crossed my mind was because I was updating my latest MOCK and about to slot Patrick Peterson into the Denver Broncos position (2nd overall). I was doing so as I was watching Nick Fairley decimate the Oregon OL. Now I have watched Patrick Peterson take over games not only at corner but on special teams but I am searching for a reason not to place him that high. How could I do so when he is my number one on my latest Big Board? Could this be an Eric Berry to the Chiefs scenario? A FS at number 5? All these questions going through my head as I debate the Broncos selection.

I truly believe Patrick Peterson will be the exception to the rule and make multiple Pro Bowls but I couldn’t blame NFL GM’s for staying away in the top five. The one caveat that Peterson brings is he can change the game on special teams, now the question becomes do you want your top five selection returning punts. Having said all that I mocked him to the Broncos in my latest MOCK DRAFT and see him as a shutdown corner in the league for years to come.

Blog – To Root or Not to Root to Lose

Posted by Brad On January – 11 – 2011

As a fan of the Cleveland Browns I find myself often asking myself this question during the last couple weeks of the season. Do I want the players to pack it in to garner a higher selection in April’s draft or do I want the players I pay to watch to lay it out on the line. I listen to sports talk radio throughout the day and hear callers condemn teams for winning games and costing them opportunities to draft this player or that player.

I promise those callers one thing, your local NFL team is not concerned with your wants or needs. They are concerned with filling empty seats and producing a watchable product. For those rooting your team on to lose my guess is your team is more than one player away from being a Playoff team. I was reading in the Dallas forum on a reputable site a fan blasting the organization for costing them x amount of draft spots. I posted on the site because everyone was jumping aboard his ship, “Jerry Jones, Jason Garrett, and the Cowboys players are not concerned with your latest mock draft, my mock draft or who we think should be selected by the Cowboys.” I was then ripped by every poster on the Cowboys forum.

In case you were wondering I answer my question every December with an empathic response of just win baby. As a Browns fan I aspire my team to be the New England Patriots. If you look at Patriots fan boards they aren’t talking about mock drafts they are talking about the Jets. Oh, wouldn’t that be nice.

Blog – Should a Receiver Be Drafted First Overall?

Posted by Brad On January – 11 – 2011

With Andrew Luck staying at Stanford, a lot of mocks (including my own) have A.J. Green going first overall in their updated mocks. There have been four WR’s taken Number One overall (Keyshawn Johnson, Irving Fryar, Lawrence Elkins, Dave Parks) in NFL history.

The question is: Is the position (WR) worth the #1 selection? Take the name out of the equation for a minute, does a guy who touches the ball on maybe 8-10 plays a game warrant this high of a selection. Some draftniks, scouts, GM’s don’t believe a WR warrants a top 10 selection. Now let’s examine the name. What if the guy you are questioning is being compared to Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, etc. A.J. Green is a game-changer, those 8-10 times a game he may touch the ball could result in 2-3 touchdowns. He has to be accounted for on every snap. Defenses are going to roll coverages to his side, making the run game and other receivers more effective. Does that change your mind?

While we are talking specifics, talk about attitude. Because if I am NFL GM and about to draft A.J. Green with the first selection I am going to wonder if I am getting Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or am I getting Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Brandon Marshall. Green was suspended four games this past year for selling a jersey to an agent. While this is not groundbreaking, earth shattering Randy Moss type of pre-draft concerns, it is still concerning. You are about to make him the highest paid WR in the league you want to ensure this is the only discrepancy. There will be a lot GM’s, scouts, NFL brass asking UGA coaches, team personnel, and teammates about what type of person he is.

To answer the original question, I believe a WR can be taken Number One but he would have to awfully special, as a person and a player.

  • Follow nflfuture on Twitter
  • Archives