1. Buffalo Bills- Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford The Bills finished 4-12 last season. It’s going to get worse in 2011. They lost the heart of their defense in free agency (Posluszny) and teams will no longer be caught off guard by Chan Gailey’s gimmicky offense. After hanging tough in most of their first 14 contests in ’10, the bottom fell out in the final two weeks of the season (a 34-3 loss to the Pats and a 38-7 mauling by the Jets). Those two games are precursors to what’s in store forBuffalo in 2011. With journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick hitting the free agent market after this season, the question isn’t whether the Bills will draft Andrew Luck first overall, it’s whether Luck would actually be willing to sign with the Bills. An Eli Manning/John Elway-type draft day situation could be on the horizon.
2. Oakland Raiders- Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma The Raiders surprised some folks with an 8-8 finish in 2010, but things will go south this season. I’m not buying Jason Campbell as the answer in Oakland, regardless of Al Davis’ delusional Jim Plunkett comparisons. Campbell is 30-years old and has been a frustratingly inconsistent QB his entire career. That’s not going to just suddenly change, and gritty Bruce Gradkowski is no longer around to bail the Raiders out when Campbell tanks. Factor in the loss of Oakland’s two most consistent players (Asomugha & Miller) and what should be return-to-Earth seasons from Seymour, Wimbley and Huff (all of whom Davis grossly overpaid after they turned in textbook contract years), and this team has “4-12″ written all over it. Campbell is a free agent in ’11 and I’m guessing the Raiders let him walk. QB Landry Jones is the NFL prototype (6-4/230) and is coming off of a So. season in which he broke OU’s single-season completions record (405) and tied Bradford’s mark for passing yards in a game (468) on the way to a stellar campaign (4,718 yds/65.6%/38-12). He’ll only get better this season and should contend for the Heisman as the Sooners make a run for the National Championship. In any other year, Jones would be the consensus #1 overall pick.
3. Denver Broncos- Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina The Broncos go into an abbreviated 2011 season trying to establish new schemes & philosophies on both sides of the ball, with the ugly Perrish Cox scandal and an impending QB controversy hanging over their heads. It’s going to be rough for a while. Elway & Xanders obviously aren’t sold on Tim Tebow. If Landry Jones was available here, I think that the Broncos would draft him quicker than a jackrabbit on a date. Since he’s off the board in my scenario,Denver will continue to upgrade their anemic defense with Quinton Coples (6-6/280), who looks every bit the part of an NFL 4-3 base end and is primed for a huge season following a 2010 All-ACC performance. Should Tebow bomb and the incumbent LDE, Robert Ayers, surprisingly emerge as a force in his third season, then all bets are off and Matt Barkley will be in play at #3.
4. Minnesota Vikings- Matt Kalil, OT, USC Donovan McNabb isn’t the answer at QB and I’m guessing that Christian Ponder gets extensive action this year. The Vikes made a desperate reach for need when they selected Ponder at #12 overall. I know that he already has his master’s degree, has a great work ethic and all of that good stuff, but so did Craig Krenzel. Ponder has never been able to stay healthy and was prone to costly miscues at FSU. For better or for worse, he’s the QB going forward in Minnesota, and protecting him should be priority #1. The release of LT Bryant McKinnie was long overdue. He was the personification of the Childress Era that the Vikings are trying to put in the rearview mirror. However, Charlie Johnson isn’t the solution on the blindside. Johnson’s marginal success in Indy was a direct result of incredible “coaching up” from ex O-line coach Howard Mudd and the simple fact that Peyton Manning gets the ball out of his hand so damned fast that he rarely takes a sack. Johnson will be exposed this year and the Vikings will go into the 2012 NFL Draft looking for a true franchise LT to serve as Ponder’s bodyguard for the next decade. Kalil (6-7/295) is a good athlete who plays with great balance and heavy hands. He’s well-coached, experienced and has NFL bloodlines. This should be an easy pick for the Vikings. Read the rest of this entry »