Five (Not-So) Bold Predictions for Tonight's First Frame
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"Todd Gurley"

Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

At this point it would be bold not to predict Chip Kelly trading for Marcus Mariota, so I’m leaving any trade talk of No. 2 off this list. I could see as many as eight to ten trades taking place tonight, including two or three before we reach 9:00 PM EST. Without giving away anymore predictions here’s five predictions to keep in mind leading up to tonight’s festivities.

The Fun Begins at No. 2 and Doesn’t Stop Until Chicago

As I alluded to in the lead in, the odds are in favor of Tennessee dealing the second pick to Philly, Cleveland or anyone else that is willing to give up a king’s ransom. I don’t see the fun ending there as the next four picks could be in play. First, Jacksonville could be a prime target for someone that wants to come up for Leonard Williams or Dante Fowler. Ditto for Oakland. As I alluded to in my mock draft last night I think Jacksonville values Todd Gurley very highly and would love to move down the board a bit to secure the guy who may be No. 1 on their board. Oakland would probably run the Leonard Williams card to Rodger but if he’s off the board, look for teams to swoon over Dante Fowler at this spot. With Shane Ray and Randy Gregory falling by the wayside, edge rush needy teams could come calling at this pick. Next up is Washington, who would probably love to get out of their pick. If Fowler is there, expect him to be there pick. If he’s not a team may be able to move up on the relative cheap as they could target an offensive lineman down the board at a cheaper price tag. While I think the Jets want to get out of No. 6 – little chance Fowler makes it down this far – I’m not sure the market won’t be dried up by a flurry of trades ahead of them. That said, if Amari Cooper remains on the board at No. 6 teams may decide to pull the trigger at a relatively inexpensive price tag.

The Wide Receiver Flurry

2014 has us spoiled. After a historical class of wide receivers the run continues into 2015. The 2015 class isn’t on the 2014 level but it’s not so bad in its own right. I have it going five locks for tonight’s first frame, with four others that could make their way into Thursday’s action. For some perspective – if all nine made it in that would constitute nearly 30% of the picks. 2014’s first round saw five receivers taken in the first frame – I think we push that with six making their way in when it’s all said and done

First Round Locks

Amari Cooper

Kevin White

DeVante Parker

Nelson Agholor

Breshad Perriman

Fringe First Rounders

Phillip Dorsett

Dorial Green-Beckham

Devin Smith

Jaelen Strong

Miami = Movers and Shakers

"DeVante Parker"

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

The Dolphins aren’t done with their active offseason. I could see Miami moving up the draft board to nab Amari Cooper, Kevin White or Todd Gurley. If those attempts fail due to being too cost prohibitive, I have to think they’d love to maneuver in front of Minnesota and Cleveland to grab DeVante Parker. The addition of Kenny Stills somewhat offsets the loss the Mike Wallace but they are going to be hellbent on giving Ryan Tannehill the tools he needs to be a wild success this season. With them already locking him in on the 5th-year option they will be looking to lock him in long-term at some point prior to the season. That move (huge money) makes it a necessity to go out and surround him with weapons. Adding an Amari Cooper to their receiving corp or Todd Gurley as a lead back will go a long way in building an offense that can compete in a division with some very strong defenses.

Jacksonville Finds a Way to Secure Todd Gurley…and that could mean taking him at No. 3

Last night’s final mock draft had my inbox full this morning of “Why?” emails. Call it a gut or whatever you want but I think Jacksonville covets Gurley and will find a way to work down the board strategically to warrant the value. Also, I wouldn’t be shocked if they decided to pull the trigger on him at No. 3 if they can’t find a suitable trade partner. Gurley is the No. 1 player on more than one team’s draft board. That means that more than one team thinks Gurley is Adrian Peterson. I happen to believe one of those teams is Jacksonville.

This decision could come down to ownership. There’s no doubt that taking Gurley in the top 10 is a major risk. He’s coming off an ACL at a position that most don’t value as being worth a high selection. If Jacksonville values him as high as I think they do, Shad Khan is going to have to sign off on it. Khan trusts Caldwell and Bradley enough to pull this move off, so I’m sticking by my guns. If it’s not Gurley, I’m going with Leonard Williams despite the positional need not being there.

The Backend of Round One is Going to Get Interesting

I think we could see a run on tackles at the end of round one. With Tampa, Tennessee, and a host of others sitting atop round two hoping a tackle will fall to them – look for a couple of teams to jump back into round one to secure a tackle. There seems to be a lumping of about five guys (Cedric Ogbuehi, Jake Fisher, T.J. Clemmings, D.J. Humphries, and Donovan Smith). I could see three to all five of these guys coming off the board after the 20th pick. If you throw in there the uncertainty of La’el Collins you could have as many six tackles that are in the 20-32 range. After these guys are off the board the tackle pool dries up – next tier of guys brings names like Daryl Williams and Corey Robinson. This combination of factors makes me believe the end of round one will see a boatload of trades.

From Carolina on down the line, I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of the teams moving out. In addition to trades, I think we could see some shocking names being called by the Commissioner towards the end of round one. Specifically, a QB name that was added into the fold by Bob McGinn was Bryce Petty to New Orleans. After I saw that I was a tad jealous that I hadn’t included that one in my mock. I could see New Orleans targeting a guy to groom behind Drew Brees and Petty wouldn’t shock me at No. 31. In addition to Petty, I wouldn’t be surprised if another RB comes off the board at the end of round. I love Duke Johnson, so my hope is someone pulls the trigger at the end of the first frame on him, making it three first round RB’s.

Author: Brad

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  • Reggie

    Todd Gurley huh? Seen worse but man that is a bad move

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