NFL's Future

See where RGIII really ranks by the numbers

Enough of the RGIII may be taken before Luck talk.  RGIII and Barkley both had better seasons than Luck.  No doubt.  But when it comes to NFL prospects, they don’t get much better than Luck. 

The 2012 NFL Draft is loaded with top level quarterback talent.  The evaluation of quarterbacks is the toughest to judge due to the number of areas to evaluate.  I break down quarterbacks in six major categories with subcategories and score them based on those rankings.  For the purpose of this evaluation, I’m showing only the major categories.

This is my vein attempt at answering the numerous emails I receive about how I rate players and should give an elementary look at my system of rating.  Here’s a look at where each quarterback ranks in each individual category.  The QB’s I chose to rank are Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin III, Landry Jones, Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles, and Brandon Weeden. 

Arm Strength

1. Nick Foles
2. Landry Jones
3. Brandon Weeden
4. Ryan Tannehill
5. Robert Griffin III
6. Matt Barkley
7. Andrew Luck

There isn’t a Ryan Mallett arm in this draft.  The closest thing to it is Nick Foles, who possesses very good arm strength.  The next four were fairly similar as I would rate them above average as a whole. Barkley and Luck were very close and slightly above-average.  Luck doesn’t possess a cannon but his arm is comparable, if not stronger, than Manning’s was coming out of Tennessee.  Read the rest of this entry » «Explaining the 2012 NFL Draft QB rankings»

The mass exodus at Miami continues as Eye on the U is reporting that OT Brandon Washington and DE Olivier Vernon will forgo their senior season to enter the 2012 NFL Draft.

Washington played LT for the Hurricanes this season and was arguably their best blocker.  The junior projects as a right tackle or guard in the NFL but carries enough upside to warrant an eventual move to the left side.

Vernon is a junior defensive end that registered 1.5 sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss in a suspension-shortened season.  Vernon was involved in the Nevin Shapiro scandal.

The mass exodus at Miami now includes Washington, Vernon, Lamar Miller, Marcus Forston, Tommy Streeter, and Aldarius Johnson.

Rob Rang of CBS Sports.com is reporting that Stanford OG David DeCastro will forgo his senior season in Palo Alto to declare for the 2012 NFL Draft. 

Rang quoted a source that says it’s “not a matter of if, but a matter of when.”

DeCastro is the top guard prospect in the 2012 NFL Draft and figures to be a top-20 pick.  Given teams distaste for drafting first-round guards it speaks to DeCastro’s overall skill set.  DeCastro is an equally adept run and pass blocker as he paved the way for the dynamic Stanford offense.  He currently sits at 25 on our 2012 NFL Draft Big Board but figures to move into the teens when the new Big Board is released after the January 15 deadline for underclassmen to declare.

DeCastro has not hired an agent at this point as Stanford players were asked to hold off on doing so until after their Fiesta Bowl game on January 2.

After reports of USC OT Matt Kalil staying at USC for his senior season, it appears that won’t be happening after all.  Chris Mortenson of ESPN has been told by sources that Kalil will forgo his senior season to enter the 2012 NFL Draft.

Kalil was dominant for the bowl-banned Trojans as he didn’t allow a single sack in 2011 and improved as a run blocker.  Earlier in the week, Kalil was voted as a first-team All-American and is expected to be the first tackle off the board and possibly the second overall player taken in April’s draft.

Kalil is the younger brother of Carolina Panthers center Ryan Kalil but don’t expect the two to join forces on an NFL field anytime soon.  With St. Louis and Minnesota firmly entrenched in the 2nd and 3rd spots in the draft he won’t make it past both of them. 

Kalil is expected to sign with agent Tom Condon, who respresents his brother.  Condon did well for Ryan last season as he signed an extension that made him the highest paid center in football.

Kalil’s decision is figured to affect the status of star QB Matt Barkley.  For weeks, there has been speculation that Kalil and Barkley were a package deal.  I would expect an announcement from Matt Barkley as he makes himself eligible for the 2012 NFL Draft any day now.

Baltimore banks on getting the 2010 Hillis

The college bowl season is upon us, the NFL Playoffs are right around the corner, and a rough idea of the 2012 NFL Draft order is beginning to come into focus. Time for those of us in the mock draft business to get our game faces on. But before we get busy matching player to team need, let’s take a look at some potential free agency targets for each team (remember pre-draft free agency?). I’m not talking about Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Drew Brees, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, Jermichael Finley, and the other impending free agents who will never actually sniff the open market. I’m talking about realistic, economically feasible signings that could fill a few pressing needs…just enough to throw most mock drafts into disarray. Let’s take a look at the AFC.  

Baltimore Ravens- RB Peyton Hillis   The Ravens don’t have a whole lot of needs, or a lot of breathing room under the cap, so after securing Ray Rice and Ben Grubbs, they’ll probably be combing the scrapheap for a few inexpensive, complementary pieces. After a nightmarish season that has erased any doubts I had as to the legitimacy of the “Madden Curse”, Hillis should be available on the cheap. Ricky Williams is approaching 35 years old, so Baltimore could pick up Hillis as a younger, similarly-priced option to serve as Rice’s backup.

Buffalo Bills- DE/OLB Robert Mathis   With Mathis, I’ve always wondered if his great production (80 career sacks) during the course of his career in Indianapolis was just a direct result of the attention paid to Dwight Freeney. I’ve also wondered if he would be even more productive as a 3-4 OLB, considering that he’s only 6-2/245. There’s a good chance that I’ll have my answers in 2012. The ’12 crop of free agent pass-rushers is predictably thin (I doubt that Cliff Avril or John Abraham are going anywhere), so teams desperate for a sack artist should be willing to overpay for Mathis’ services. At only $3 million under the cap, I’m not sure that the Colts will be able to retain him.

There’s a desperate need for pass-rushers in Buffalo. The Bills are currently last in the NFL with a paltry 19 sacks, Shawne Merriman has probably played his last NFL down, and Chris Kelsay has done nothing to justify the ridiculous 5-year, $28.2 million contract the Bills threw at him in ’10. The Bills are in good fiscal shape ($20.9 under the cap), so after they Franchise Demetrius Bell, I expect them to be major players for Mathis. Read the rest of this entry » «AFC Free Agent Signing Predictions»

Aaron Fentress of the Oregonian is reporting the Oregon RB LaMichael James will forgo his senior season and enter the 2012 NFL Draft.  James is the Ducks all-time leading rusher and many expected James to make himself eligible in 2012.

James has amassed 4,923 yards rushing and has 52 career rushing touchdowns.  Just this morning James was named as a Second-Team All-American following a season that saw the junior run for 1,646 yards and 17 rushing TD’s despite not playing in two games due to a dislocated elbow.

James lacks ideal size to carry the load in the NFL which could push him down draft boards.  The sweet spot for James appears to be in the 2nd-3rd round of April’s draft.  We currently rank James as our 66th best prospect but may fall further in next month’s update of the 2012 Big Board.

Perry has first-round talent

Nick Perry, the junior USC defensive end has been rumored as one that may bolt USC for the NFL Draft and it appears that is happening.  Tony Pauline of SI.com and DraftInsider.com has reported that Perry has decided to take his talents to the NFL and has signed an agent.

Perry is a 6’3″ 250-pound DE that is likely to transition to the 3-4 OLB spot in the NFL.  As a junior, he recorded 55 tackles, 9.5 sacks, and 13 TFL.  Perry is an athletic pass rusher that could be among the top 3-4 OLB’s in this class.  He finished his USC career with 22.5 sacks.

Perry’s athleticism is likely to blow scouts away at February’s scouting combine.  Perry is reportedly one of the fastest players on the USC team and figures to run a legit 4.5 at 250 pounds.  At this point, we have Perry as an early day two pick but he’s likely to skyrocket up the draft boards after the combine and Pro-Day workouts.  I would fully anticipate Perry’s name being called in the first-round of the 2012 NFL Draft.

Desean could be one of many prize free agents

The college bowl season is upon us, the NFL Playoffs are right around the corner, and a rough idea of the 2012 NFL Draft order is beginning to come into focus. Time for those of us in the mock draft business to get our game faces on. But before we get busy matching player to team need, let’s take a look at some potential free agency targets for each team (remember pre-draft free agency?). I’m not talking about Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Drew Brees, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, Jermichael Finley, and the other impending free agents who will never actually sniff the open market. I’m talking about realistic, economically feasible signings that could fill a few pressing needs…just enough to throw most mock drafts into disarray. Let’s start with the NFC.  

Arizona Cardinals- CB Marcus Trufant   Patrick Peterson has the “perennial Pro Bowler” look at one corner spot, but beyond the electrifying rookie, guys like A.J. Jefferson, Richard Marshall, and Greg Toler have been uninspiring. The Cardinals will probably utilize their premium picks in the 2012 NFL Draft to shore up their awful offensive line, so they may want to address their need at corner before the draft with an economical free agent like Trufant. Trufant is on the wrong side of thirty and has been injury-plagued over the last few seasons, making him a very risky free agency investment. However, he would come cheaply and could be a solid #2 corner for a year or two, if healthy.

Atlanta Falcons- OG/OT Adam Snyder   At only $1.6 million under the cap (and possibly gun shy in the wake of Ray Edwards’ disappointing season), expect the Falcons to be bargain-basement shoppers when addressing their greatest need (O-line) in free agency. Former first-rounder Sam Baker has been awful and could be a cap casualty this offseason. The RG position has been a mess following the free agency defection of Harvey Dahl. Snyder is a marginal NFL starter, but has the toughness and versatility to hold down the fort at LT or RG in a pinch.

Carolina Panthers- WR Vincent Jackson   The Panthers are currently only $1.8 million under the cap, but the release of high-priced vets like Jeff Otah, Jeremy Shockey, Thomas Davis and Travelle Wharton could clear up enough space to make a play for V-Jax. Jackson has a history with Carolina offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski and, at 6-5/230, he would be the ideal complement to the smallish Steve Smith. Addressing the WR position in free agency would allow GM Marty Hurney to use a probable top 10 pick on a defensive stud (Morris Claiborne/Dre Kirkpatrick/Quinton Coples/Whitney Mercilus), or maybe even an OT to replace Otah and eventually succeed Jordan Gross at the blindside (Jonathan Martin/Riley Reiff). Read the rest of this entry » «Profetta’s NFC Free Agent Signings»

Didn't see this one coming

The mass exodus at Miami will not include safety Ray Ray Armstrong.  With Lamar Miller, Marcus Forston, and Tommy Streeter already announcing themselves eligible for the 2012 NFL Draft, Armstrong decided to stick with the Hurricanes.

At 6’4″ 215-pounds Armstrong is a hard-hitting safety that was expected to be the next in line of great University of Miami safeties.  Armstrong drew comparisons to the late Sean Taylor as they shared the same number.  Unfortunately for Armstrong, his skills haven’t equated to the production that most expected from the former Sanford Seminole High star.

Armstrong was suspended twice in 2011 and only played in seven games.  His first suspension was of the four-game variety for his role in the Nevin Shapiro scandal.  The second suspension cost him the Florida St. game due to a Tweet about dinner with a Miami PR firm.  Armstrong finished the season with 34 tackles, an interception, and a fumble recovery.

The decision for Armstrong to stay for his senior season was wise as his stock was dropping quickly.  His lack of production along with off-the-field indiscretions raised major red flags and most likely dropped him into the 3rd-4th round range.

Sanu Returns

A source close to the Rutgers program has told Metro New York that WR Mohamed Sanu will return to Rutgers for his senior season.

Sanu was widely considered among the top WR’s in the 2012 NFL Draft and a likely top 50 pick.  The junior wide receiver was a jack of all trades at Rutgers including a punt returner and Wildcat quarterback.  Sanu amassed 109 receptions for 1,144 yards and 7 TD’s in 2011.  Rutgers is slated to play in the Pinstripe Bowl on December 30.  Many expected that to be Sanu’s final game in a Rutgers uniform.

This one gets a little strange because the Rutgers athletic department has told Metro New York that no Rutgers players have made their decisions.  This is one to keep an eye on as players have until January 15 to make their decisions.

With the “Suck for Luck” power(less) rankings running the course, we look ahead to the all-important speculative draft order. 

In the final three weeks of the regualar season we will start our “Suck for Barkley/RGIII rankings.”  Indy has all but wrapped up the race for Andrew Luck, now we turn our attention to the race for Matt Barkley and Robert Griffin III.  RGIII is the hottest thing going draft-wise as some are speculating he could be taken ahead of Luck.  That’s not going to happen but it could get real interesting at the top of the draft come April.  With that said, here’s a look at a whole bunch of speculation:

1.  Indianapolis Colts (0-13)

Strength of Schedule: .550

Remaining Games:  vs. Tennessee, vs. Houston, @Jacksonville

Forecast:  Indy was beaten again to take one step closer to a historic 0-16 season.  With three contests remaining it will come down to week 17 with Jacksonville.  Tennessee and Houston should handle the Colts and their ineptness. 

Projected Win Total:  0

2.  St. Louis Rams (2-11)

Strength of Schedule:  .556

Remaining Games:  vs. Cincinnati, vs. Pittsburgh, @ San Francisco

Forecast:  With Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Fran left it’s a two win season for the Rams.  What is going on with Sam Bradford?  It’s beginning to look like an Alex Smith situation, as he could be headed for three systems in three years.

Projected Win Total:  2 Read the rest of this entry » «2012 NFL Draft Order: Let the QB race begin»