Position by position overvalued/undervalued 2013 NFL Draft prospects: The Defense
The NFL Draft is a perfect example of just how powerful the media is. The current modus operandi for NFL Draft media happens to be Twitter. With seemingly every draft fan linked up on the Twitter platform is easy to get a whole lot of consensus built up quickly on a player that may or may not be worthy.
The power of a Mel Kiper/Todd McShay/insert any major media member tweet about a prospect can send a player into a stratosphere that may not be indicative of his on-field play. I’m not suggesting agents or teams use their leverage to snowball draft fans…or maybe I am.
Either way, the fact remains that the media hype of players has been a historical issue, glorified by social media.
Today we take on the All-Overvalued and All-Undervalued Teams. We break down each position to give fans an idea of who we believe are being over-and-undervalued in the draft coverage.
Overvalued – Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
Margus Hunt is a flat out freak. Size, speed, and strength in spades. They don’t get much more impressive on the eye test than Hunt.
I have no doubts that Hunt could be a special teams force and subpackage rusher early but those characteristics don’t scream first or second round for me. Hunt is being talked up as a possible first rounder and this floor appears to be in the early stages of round two.
Hunt carries a fourth-fifth round grade for us. He was a splash player that didn’t affect the game consistently in any one game that we watched. He was great in spurts but often times didn’t play up to his physical talent.
Undervalued – Joe Kruger, Utah
Joe Kruger was a surprise early entrant into this year’s draft. At 6-foot-6 and nearly 270 pounds, Kruger comes from a football family. Older brothers, Paul recently signed a big deal with the Browns and Dave finished four year career at Utah. His father played at Oregon State. The bloodlines are thick with this family and Joe is a guy that is drastically undervalued.
He has the frame to bulk up and play the 5T and the athleticism to stand up and rush on pass downs. He’s carrying 5th-6th round grades on a lot of boards but I would be surprised if he made it out of the top 125 picks.
Overvalued – John Jenkins, Georgia
John Jenkins is a massive human being that can push the pocket with strength and underrated foot quickness. It’s easy to see why he would be valued very highly and maybe too highly.
Jenkins is carrying anywhere from 2nd-3rd round grades on most boards. Big body DT’s that can play the nose in the 3-4 are hot commodities in today’s NFL with over half the teams employing three-man fronts.
There was just too many indiscrepencies on tape to justify a grade in the top 100 for me. He was always on the ground and played too tall. He won’t be able to get away with exposing his chest plate at the next level as he did at Georgia. Just more negatives with Jenkins than positives and I could see him sliding down draft boards and into the late fourth-fifth round.
Undervalued – Brandon Williams, Missouri Southern St.
By now, if you follow the draft at all, you should be familiar with this name. Williams is a small school standout that made a name for himself during the pre-draft process. Even so, he’s still an undervalued prospect that is carrying 3rd-4th round grades.
At 6-foot-1, 335 pounds Williams has an impressive frame and plays with outstanding leverage. He’s a quick footed big man that isn’t going to be pigeonholed into being just a nose. He lined up as a five-technique at Missouri Southern and has the ability to play the 3T as well.
Williams may come off the board in the 3rd round but I wouldn’t be surprised a bit if a team pulled the trigger in the 2nd as he fits any and all schemes.
Overvalued – Alec Ogletree, Georgia
There’s has been some talk this week that Ogletree is going to make his way into the top 10 of Thursday’s draft.
There’s a lot to be enamored with in Ogletree’s game. He’s a plus athlete that plays downhill and is capable of making a ton of tackles behind the line of scrimmage.
With all the plusses there comes a whole lot of negatives that should keep him out of round one. Ogletree struggles to disengage from blocks, has a history of off-the-field indescretions, and overruns too many plays. I think he’s a second round value that will get overdrafted.
Undervalued – Sio Moore, Connecticut
This was a toss up for me between Moore and Lerentee McCray. Moore gets the nod despite many wising up to his game.
Moore does everything well and is versatile enough to play multiple spots at the next level. He has the strength and athleticism to play on the strongside or weakside at the next level and could move inside. It’s that versatility that has him being bantered about as a guy on the ‘rise’.
Overvalued – Johnthan Banks, Mississippi St.
Tall corners are en vogue in today’s game. They don’t get much taller than Banks, who checks in at 6-foot-2. He’s played safety, boundary corner, and the nickel spot at Mississippi St as a three-year starter.
There’s plenty of skills to become enamored with in Banks’ gahnme. He possesses good ball skills and brings the versatility to excel in man or zone coverage at the next level. He seems to have settled into the round two area after initially being talked about as a first round corner.
Banks carries a 2nd-3rd round grade for us and there are plenty of corners that should be taken ahead of him that will almost assuredly go after Banks. On tape, Banks was deficient in his backpedal and opened up his hips far too early to avoid getting beat deep. I worry about his ability to transition to cover speed at the next level and think he could be headed to safety.
Undervalued – Kayvon Webster, South Florida
It seems that I’m on a one man mission to get Webster drafted ahead of where he’s being graded. Webster may have been the biggest source of contention in our top 300 rankings. We have a 3rd-4th round grade on Webster, while many cited other rankings that didn’t have a draftable grade on him.
Webster consistently flashed on tape with his athletic talents and ability to find the football. He carries a 7-FA grade on CBS Sports but we don’t think there’s a chance he does undrafted and could come off the board earlier than expected.
Overvalued – Matt Elam, Florida
Matt Elam appears to be headed for a selection in the late first, early second round. That would officially make him overdrafted in our book. We have a late second round grade on the Florida safety.
There were times on film that I wasn’t sure he was the best safety on his own team (Josh Evans). He’s a highlight machine that made a ton of splash plays but his effort was inconsistent and missed quite a few tackles trying to make big hits.
Undervalued – Duke Williams, Nevada
Duke Williams is a guy that I feel I’ve been watching play for ten years. Every year there seems to be a Nevada defender that I focus on in the draft and end up watching Duke.
He seems to be carrying 5th-6th round grades on reputable sites but I can’t envision him lasting that long. He’s a superb athlete that lacks prototypical size and comes with some off-the-field baggage. He’s a guy that won’t go as early as he should but could come in and contribute early on in his career.