Let me start this off by saying that I think there’s 0% chance that only one QB goes in the first round. That said, I think teams will be looking to either trade back into the first round or take their chances and wait it out. Without mocking trades, there’s only one QB in the first round of this draft…won’t happen come April. It’s my belief that Matt Barkley will be the second QB off the board and it will come via some sort of trade. Enough QB talk, here’s our first 4-Round 2013 NFL Mock Draft. Enjoy and feel free to rip it apart. Also like our facebook page to get entered into our $500 Dick’s gift card giveaway and follow me on Twitter.
1. Kansas City Chiefs – Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
I can’t wait for free agency to begin so we can finally put to rest all the nonsense about the first pick. Will the Chiefs re-sign Brandon Albert? Will they pick up a veteran via trade or free agency? No one knows, so there’s no sense in speculating. Until something happens to that end, I’ll be going with Geno Smith to the Chiefs.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St.
This pick could go any of two ways in my mind. Both of them are on the defensive line. Rumors began swirling this week that Jacksonville was honing in on a pass rusher in the draft. I tend to buy into that one as Gus Bradley will be looking to apply loads of pressure on opposing QB’s.
3. Oakland Raiders – Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
Last week I had the Raiders moving Jared Veldheer to the right side. I’m fine with that idea until I realized the massive holes on defense. The Raiders roster from top to bottom just isn’t very good and there isn’t many spots on defense that don’t need addressed.
Lotulelei gives the Raiders the ability to play multiple fronts which is the current fad in the NFL. He’s a big body with unreal movement skills for his size. This pick has to come down to Lotulelei vs. Sheldon Richardson. I have been a fan of Richardson at this spot but I can see many organizations favoring Lotulelei.
4. Philadelphia Eagles – Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
The Eagles pick would be real interesting if Lotulelei slid down to them with Joeckel still on the board. Joeckel may be the top player in the draft but Lotulelei fills the bigger need. The thought of Joeckel sliding past the fourth pick is mind boggling and would put Detroit in a position that they would have to take back to back first round tackles or trade the pick. Win-win for them.
In this scenario, the pick is an easy one with Lotulelei going at No. 3. Joeckel gives the Eagles some much needed help on the offensive line which should be a priority after last season’s rash of injuries. Jason Peters and Joeckel could give Chip Kelly a hell of a tackle tandem to start his NFL career.
5. Detroit Lions – Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
The infamous ‘wide nine’ defense is alive and well in Detroit. While it gets a lot of attention, the wide nine defense only really affects one player. It moves the defensive end from outside the tackle to outside the tight end in a base four man front. The goal is to get the end in optimum rush position on pass downs. Really much ado about nothing as it’s more schematic than base defense.
I have been on record about my concerns with Moore in a four man alignment as I believe he’s best suited standing up in a 30 front. Moore could find a home in Detroit in this scheme and could be the answer to their woes at the position as Cliff Avril will likely find a new home.
6. Cleveland Browns – Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Jabaal Sheard will audition at open side end in Horton’s 3-4 base defense. The big question for the Browns will be the health of Chris Gocong, who appears perfectly suited to play the SAM spot on this defense. The Browns could use this pick on an OLB that gives them more than Gocong but with needs in the secondary, I don’t see it as a necessity.
With Sheldon Brown most likely done, this pick should be a no-brainer if Milliner is on the board. Milliner gives the Browns a physical presence on the outside that is an excellent fit opposite Joe Haden.
7. Arizona Cardinals – Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
The top seven remain intact from last week, that’s a first this early in the draft process. Fisher is a rare specimen as he brings loads of athleticism to the position. If he can keep weight on his frame, this guy has a shot at being a very good one in the league. Nate Potter and Bobbie Massie filled in admirably and could be the answers long-term at RT but passing on a franchise type LT is not wise for this organization.
8. Buffalo Bills – Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
As I’ve said time in and time out, I’m lost on the Bills pick. They will have to consider a QB at this spot or look to be aggressive in jumping up and getting a guy they like later in the first round. Sitting back and waiting until pick 42 may be too big of a risk.
If the Bills opt to stay away from a QB at No. 8 they will have to give serious consideration to Ansah. Ansah may be the most polarizing pick in the draft. Mike Pettine loves versatile players to play in his multiple fronts. Ansah brings versatility in spades. While many consider him to be raw, he’s an NFL ready run defender that has loads of upside as an athlete. He gives Pettine the ability to get real creative with him and Mario Williams off the edge.
9. New York Jets – Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
I think Barkley is the next QB off the board but I can’t see it being to the Jets. The Jets aren’t in a position to gamble on Barkley at No. 9 after flopping with Sanchez in a trade up to No. 6 in 2009. The Jets are best to bring in a veteran to compete with Sanchez and draft someone in the 2nd or 3rd round for the future.
Mingo gives the Jets and Rex Ryan a much needed pass rusher. The pass defense was solid in 2012 given the lack of Darrelle Revis and little in the way of a pass rush. Mingo gives them elite upside and could wind up a steal at No. 9.
10. Tennessee Titans – Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
This is a tough one with Chance Warmack on the board and the Titans need for interior linemen. That said, passing on a disruptive 3T like Richardson is foolish if he makes it down to No. 10. Richardson is a Warren Sapp-esque playmaker with limited experience. After Richardson blows the top off of Indianapolis, it will be tough to ignore him as a real possibility as a top 5 pick.
11. San Diego Chargers – Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
As good as Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher are, neither may carry the upside that Johnson does long-term. That’s saying a lot as both Joeckel and Fisher are carrying top 5 grades on my board. Johnson is three season removed from playing QB at the JUCO level and will be a first round tackle. That’s incredible to wrap your mind around. He will have to learn to anchor against power but he’s as good athletically as they come. Reminds me a lot of Nate Solder and that’s worked out pretty well for New England.
12. Miami Dolphins – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
The Dolphins receivers combined for three touchdowns this season. That’s right, three. Patterson brings elite size and athleticism to the position. A couple of weeks ago, I took to the film to show you why he may be the top receiver in the draft. I don’t think I’m alone on that assessment.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
Some of my avid emailers exposed the truths behind my flawed logic. At this point in the draft season, I put aside my rankings for the sake of mock drafts. Prior to the Senior Bowl, I’m exploring ideas based on my personal thoughts on prospects.
I have Rhodes as a borderline first round pick but that’s my personal preference. He is widely considered a top twenty talent. As I have yet to finish my film study on Rhodes, I can’t honestly say he’s not worthy of this pick. There’s no doubts that he fits Tampa’s scheme very well and has the upside to be a very good man cover corner in the league.
14. Carolina Panthers – Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
Ron and Dwan Edwards make up the completely inept Edwards Wall in Carolina. With any luck neither will be back next season.
News starting filtering out of the Senior Bowl that Floyd was being talked about as a fast riser and top ten pick. I don’t doubt that one bit. He’s explosive and versatile. Recipe for success in today’s NFL. His speed, burst, and ability to turn speed to power will have teams salivating after him. He’s a great fit in Carolina as they could use someone to pressure from the inside and disrupt the backfield.
15. New Orleans Saints – Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
Junior Galette and Martez Wilson may be very solid 3-4 ‘backers. I’m not going to argue that fact but passing on a talent like Jordan at this point is foolish even if you think Galette and Wilson are pretty good. There may not be a more physically impressive specimen in the draft in terms of a rush linebacker. Jordan brings freakish size and athleticism with the ability to be an effective player in coverage…something that Galette and Wilson are not.
16. St. Louis Rams – Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
This could be a pick that takes all of a minute to turn in. If Warmack falls into the laps of the Rams, I can’t see how or why there would be any other consideration. Warmack is a stud and gives you an immediate presence in the middle of your line. He could go as high as No. 6 to Cleveland and this is the floor.
Like our Facebook page to enter your name into a drawing for a $500 Dick’s Sporting Goods shopping spree. Click this link to instantly enter our giveaway contest. If we get to 400 likes before Valentine’s Day we will be doing a random draw for all people that like our page. Share this mock draft to help us get to 400 likes and you will be entered into the contest.