Profetta’s 3 Round 2013 NFL Mock Draft: January 7th Edition

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1. Kansas City Chiefs – Geno Smith QB West Virginia"Geno Smith"

How can a team that rushed for 350 yards in Week 17 possibly lose? For the same reason that a team with five Pro-Bowlers manages only two wins; by rolling out the likes of Brady Quinn and Matt Cassel at QB.

Horrific QB play torpedoed any chance that the Chiefs had at success in 2012, so unless the Chiefs make yet another move for fool’s gold like Matt Flynn, Michael Vick, or Alex Smith, I don’t see how this pick can be anyone but Geno Smith. Yeah, yeah, yeah…Geno Smith isn’t Andrew Luck or RGIII, but let’s be reasonable; the 2012 QB class was an anomaly. Let’s focus on what Smith is: a toolsy, experienced prospect who just finished up a season in which he completed 71.2% of his passes for 4,198 yards, with a tidy 42-6 TD/INT ratio. He has his warts, but so did Tim Couch, David Carr, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Jamarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton…pretty much every recent #1 overall pick not named Manning or Luck. With Andy Reid, a reknowned QB-developer, and his pass-happy WCO on their way to Kansas City, this could be the ideal setting for Smith. Let’s hope, for the sake of Chiefs fans, that Vick doesn’t hitch a ride with Reid.

Also considered: OT Luke Joeckel…Only if Brandon Albert is set free. The Chiefs will have enough cap space to keep Albert in the fold, but given his injury history, they could decide to go in another direction. But what would be the point? Without a QB, they could have an electrified, barbed-wire fence protecting the blindside and still finish last in the NFL in offense.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M (Jr.)

It seems that the Jacksonville/Tebow marriage is inevitable. I’m not so sure that Tebow is the answer under center, but what I can say with certainty is this: If Tebow is your starting QB, then you better have one hell of a defense.

2012 saw the Jags carry on their annual tradition of finishing at or near the bottom of the league’s sack rankings, and there isn’t much hope for in-house improvement. Early returns on Andre Branch are discouraging. It appears that Jeremy Mincey is the defensive equivalent of Ryan Fitzpatrick or Doug Free; the recipient of an overreactive contract based upon a small sampling of serviceability. The aging Jason Babin continues his courageous battle with his Carrot Topesque eyebrow-plucking addiction. (Our thoughts and prayers are with him.)

"Jason Babin"

Great arch on those ‘brows Jason

The yet-to-be-determined Jaguars GM may be looking to distance himself from the risk-taking ways of failed predecessors James Harris and Gene Smith, and could see an eerily consistent producer like Moore as a relatively safe, defensive building block.

Also considered: DE Bjoern WernerYou have to love Werner’s natural strength and instincts, but Moore’s superior athleticism and polish win out hereOLB Jarvis JonesArguably the best pass-rusher available, but the questions regarding his measurables and spinal stenosis remain. Jones could be drafted anywhere from #2 to #42.  

3. Oakland Raiders – Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M (Jr.)

Oakland’s depth chart will be gutted after this season. Already down a 2nd and 5th rounder thanks to the Carson Palmer and Aaron Curry trades, Reggie McKenzie and Co. may be looking to amass as many draft picks as possible to jump-start the rebuilding process. (Al Davis is spinning in his grave upon that suggestion.) I could see Oakland dangling this pick to lure a team targeting Luke Joeckel. St. Louis could be interested, as could San Diego or Miami. Trading down to the 11 to 16 range would move the Raiders into the proper value neighborhood for a potential target like Chance Warmack, Johnathan Hankins, Ezekiel Ansah, Xavier Rhodes, or Johnthan Banks. Since we’re not forecasting trade scenarios just yet, I’m giving the Raiders Joeckel under the guise of “BPA”.

Also considered: If they don’t trade down, Oakland will probably take the best defensive prospect available. DE Bjoern Werner, DE/OLB Dion Jordan, DT Star Lotulelei, DT Sheldon Richardson, OLB Jarvis Jones, ILB Manti Te’o, and CB Dee Milliner could all make an argument for that distinction.      

4. Philadelphia Eagles – Star Lotulelei DT Utah

The Eagles need a wide-body DT who can absorb blocks and free up Cole, Graham, and Cox to get after quarterbacks, and it’s about time to give up on the notion that Antonio Dixon will ever be that guy. Lotulelei’s inconsistency puts him a notch below recent top-five DT prospects Dareus, Suh, and McCoy, but he’s a decent value here and a relatively safe pick.

Also considered: OLB Jarvis Jones…Jones/Ryans/Kendricks would be a nice trio at LB…ILB Manti Te’o…With Ryans at MLB, drafting Te’o seems like a lateral move…CB Dee MillinerI have a hunch that Asomugha will take a pay cut and stick around. I can’t imagine Milliner coming off the board a spot higher than Patrick Peterson and Morris Claiborne did, but it’s not out of the question.

5. Detroit Lions – Bjoern Werner DE Florida State (Jr.)

I love Manti Te’o as much as the next guy, but I don’t understand why he’s suddenly become such a popular pick for the Lions. Detroit will likely lose Cliff Avril in free agency, and KVB is cooked. The Lions will be fiscally handcuffed during free agency, so the draft could be their only means of addressing the DE position before next season. In a division where Aaron Rodgers is the gold standard (not to mention Detroit’s arch-nemesis), do you you really think that the Lions will go into 2013 with Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young, and their combined 2.5 sacks, as their starting DEs?

The more I watch Werner, the less convinced I am that he possesses the pure athleticism to warrant a top-five selection, but he’s a low-risk prospect with the potential to emerge as a young Justin Smith-type force at the next level. In this scenario, that would be more than good enough for the Lions.

Also considered: OLB Jarvis JonesMartin Mayhew is definitely not afraid of a risky prospect if the value is right, and there could be a need at OLB with Durant and Levy hitting the open market…DE/OLB Dion Jordan…His length, speed, and upside could push him into the 5 to 10 range…ILB Manti Te’o…Te’o is the kind of productive, intangible-laden prospect that’s easy to fall in love with, so he has to be a consideration for almost every pick…CB Dee MillinerGod knows that the Lions need some stability at the corner spot opposite Chris Houston, but a solid #2 CB could easily be located on the second day.  

6. Cleveland Browns – Dion Jordan DE/OLB Oregon

The Browns have okay depth at DE, but there’s no truly dominant force. Pass-rushing specialist Jacqua Parker led the unit with just six sacks – and he’s a 34-year old, impending free agent. Dion Jordan’s “Praying Mantis” nickname is apt; his incredible length has me thinking that he could easily pack on enough good bulk to eventually line up as a 4-3 DE. Jordan could immediately replace Parker as Frostee Rucker’s tag-team patner at RDE, picking up a few tips from the wily run-stopper before usurping the starting job. His coverage skills and ability to eat up field could also allow Jordan to serve as a king-sized, Kiwanuka-type SLB. Tons of upside and value with Jordan.

Also considered: ILB Manti Te’oThe Browns emphasize speed on defense; a prospect with elite playing speed, like Arthur Brown or Alec Ogletree, would be a better fit than Te’o…CB Dee Milliner…The close runner-up.

7. Arizona Cardinals – Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri (Jr.)

Shocking pick? Not really. Richardson will rise throughout the predraft process and won’t be considered a reach at #7 come April. Pulling the trigger on Richardson would allow Arizona to offer up disgruntled 5-tech Darnell Dockett to the highest bidder (Patriots?). Dockett is 31-years old and a terminal headache. According to Profootballfocus, he graded out as the worst starting 3-4 DE in the NFL in 2012. An aging, overpaid, overrated player who spits in the face of his own teammate? The Cardinals should just trade him and get some value in return while they still can.

As a prospect, Richardson is very similar to Dockett – in both the positive and negative sense. Arizona/Richardson seems like a natural marriage to me.

Also considered: QB Mike Glennon/QB Tyler WilsonThe Cards may stick with Kolb and draft a QB to groom later on. Try to contain your enthusiasm, Arizona fansOT Taylor LewanThe Cards allowed 58 sacks in 2012, so an upgrade at LT should be an offseason priority. Do they dare rely on Levi Brown again?…OG Chance WarmackIf any team should select a guard in the top ten, it’s Arizona. Warmack could instantly improve Arizona’s putrid running gameILB Manti Te’oCould be the perfect complement to Daryl Washington at the heart of Ray Horton’s Blitzburgh-inspired scheme, but will Horton be around in 2013?…OLB Barkevious Mingo/OLB Jarvis JonesEither could be a pass-rushing upgrade from Acho or Schofield, but so could second day prospects like Corey Lemonier or Brandon Jenkins…CB Dee Milliner…CB is not a priority in the desert, but Milliner could be considered the BPA in Arizona’s war room.

8. Buffalo Bills – Mike Glennon QB N.C. State

The hiring of offensive-minded Doug Marrone as head coach increases the already-strong likelihood that the Bills will be targeting a QB here.Ryan Nassib will instantly become a popular second-day pick for the Bills thanks to the Syracuse connection, but I think that the more likely scenario is Buffalo falling in love with Mike Glennon’s upside during Senior Bowl week. Here’s another one of those desperate reaches for a QB that have become more frequent in recent years.     

Also considered: QB Matt BarkleyMissing the Senior Bowl dings his chances of getting back into top 15 consideration…Tyler Wilson…Wilson, and not Glennon, could just as easily be the QB who makes a Christian Ponder-like move up draft boards with a good week in Mobile, but Glennon’s superior upside and Wilson’s injury history have me thinking that it will be Glennon who rises…OT Taylor Lewan…A darkhorse. The Bills could lose F.A. Andy Levitre, meaning Cordy Glenn may slide over to LG. Erik Pears is no great shakes at RT, either…OG Chance Warmack…Plug ‘n’ play replacement for Levitre?…DE Ezekiel AnsahChris Kelsay is history and Mark Anderson is no better than an injury-prone specialist. RDE is a problem spot…DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo…Buddy Nix loves his southeastern prospects…OLB Jarvis Jones…Could play SAM , allowing Nigel Bradham to supplant Nick Barnett at WILL…ILB Manti Te’o…The guy most fans would clamor for, but not necessarily the best pick for the Bills. Kelvin Sheppard is a solid, young run-stuffer…CB Dee MillinerSoutheastern product + BPA = Potential Buddy Nix selection.

9. New York Jets – Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU (Jr.)

It appears that this organization will ride with Ryan and Sanchez until the wheels come off, so no QB here. New York’s only hope for success in 2013 is getting back to the basics that brought them to the cusp of the Super Bowl only a few seasons ago. That means shoring up the defense and reestablishing a dominant rushing attack should be their top offseason priorities.

The Jets currently have $142 million tied up in contracts, with a $4 million carry-over the only bit of relief in sight. Sanchez and Holmes’ contracts make them essentially unreleasable and untradeable, so New York’s only way out of salary cap hell is to do some serious fat trimming. It’s doubtful that defensive stalwarts Sione Pouha, Calvin Pace, Bryan Thomas, and Bart Scott will be back next season, and the 2013 NFL Draft will probably be the only means of locating suitable replacements.

Mingo’s mediocre ’12 campaign has been well-documented, but his upside should keep him in the top half of the first round. (Not unlike the situation with Quinton Coples last year.) New York’s pressing need for an Aldon Smith-type force at 3-4 OLB makes Mingo the no-brainer pick here.

Also considered: QB Tyler WilsonNah – Ryan and Sanchez are in this thing together. If Wilson makes it past the Jets, there’s no telling how far he might slide…OG Chance Warmack…Matt Slauson and Brandon Moore are free agents. Warmack is custom-built for the Ground ‘n’ Pound…DT Jesse Williams…It wouldn’t be shocking. Guys capable of anchoring a 3-4 always get pushed up on draft day. Pouha is in sharp decline and could be a cap casualty…OLB Jarvis JonesI know a few Jets fans who covet Jones, but I think that he would be a poor fit in Ryan’s scheme. Rex prefers tall, lengthy OLBs who are solid in coverage and stout vs. the run. Jones can be overpowered at the point of attack and lacks the reach to contend with the likes of Rob Gronkowski in coverage.      

10. Tennessee Titans – Manti Te’o ILB Notre Dame

I know that the Titans have Colin McCarthy at MLB, but I doubt that they would pass on Te’o here. The undersized McCarthy is simply too fragile to be relied upon as the defensive leader. He was injury-prone in college, and has been injury-prone in the pros. However, the presence of Te’o at MLB could lighten McCarthy’s load. McCarthy could play some SLB, allowing Akeem Ayers to periodically put his hand in the dirt at DE. Or the Titans could show more 3-4 looks, with Ayers and Kamerion Wimbley at OLB. In theory, drafting Te’o could preserve McCarthy, provide Tennessee sorely-needed leadership, improve run-stopping from the MLB spot, allow Ayers to move around (improving the pass rush), and offer schematic versatility. I’d say that’s pretty good value at #10.

Also considered: QB Tyler Wilson…Jake Locker is injury-prone and can’t throw a rock into the ocean, but Munchak’s stay of execution means that the Titans will give Locker one more season to blossom…OG Chance Warmack…A strong possibility. Tennessee’s interior O-line is a saloon door…DT Johnathan Hankins/DT Jesse WilliamsThe Titans need more bulk up the middle, but their DT rotation is already very young. A reasonably-priced, veteran F.A. like Terrance Knighton or Sammie Lee Hill to platoon with promising Mike Martin might be a smarter option than piling more youth on top of youth…CB Dee MillinerThe close runner-up. McCourty should be a #2 CB, and Verner should be in the slot. Let’s see what happens in free agency.

11. San Diego Chargers – Taylor Lewan OT Michigan (Jr.)

Fixing Philip Rivers is San Diego’s undisputed, heavyweight champion of offseason priorities. The first (and most crucial) step toward achieving that goal will be to stop the hemmoraging at left tackle, so unless the Chargers sign a potential free agent like Jake Long or Sam Baker, this pick is probably Lewan’s floor.

Lost amid the sound and fury of Jadeveon Clowney’s decapitation of Vincent Smith at the Outback Bowl was the fact that Lewan did about as well as could be expected in his matchup against South Carolina’s unstoppable force of nature. Sure, Clowney came up big late in the game (the great ones always do), but Lewan kept Clowney relatively quiet most of the contest. Lewan will probably never be dominant, but he’s a classic Big Ten battler that you can plug in at LT and rest assured that he’ll find a way to get the job done…which is a lot more than can be said about the terminally injured Jared Gaither and the godawful Mike Harris.

Also considered: OG Chance WarmackIf Warmack escapes the top ten, he’ll qualify as a steal. Tyronne Green and Louis Vasquez are free agents – Green would be no big loss…CB Dee Milliner…Quentin Jammer is probably done in San Diego, and Antoine Cason is also a F.A., but Marcus Gilchrist and Shareece Wright offer some youthful potential. I imagine that a veteran free agent will be thrown into the mix.



12. Miami Dolphins – Dee Milliner CB Alabama (Jr.)

Sean Smith is a terminal tease and a free agent. He’s a candidate for the Franchise tag, but when it’s imperative that you retain Sean Smith, it’s a pretty good sign that you need a ton of help at corner.

Milliner isn’t a big-time playmaker in the mold of Patrick Peterson, but he’s the kind of big, physical corner perfectly suited for Kevin Coyle’s press-zone scheme. If Milliner is still on the board, he’s a Dolphin. Armed with extra picks in the second and third rounds, Miami could even decide to move up for him.

Also considered: WR Cordarrelle Patterson…Miami needs a #1 target for Tannehill to lean on, but they have plenty of cap room in a year that could offer a quality crop of free agent WRs. Greg Jennings seems like a logical fit…OG Chance Warmack…We all love Warmack, but if given the choice of a potential shutdown corner or a great guard, it’s the shutdown corner every time…OT Eric FisherDon’t snicker – he has the talent to warrant a look this high…DE Ezekiel AnsahHe may be that pass-rushing complement to Cameron Wake – or he may not. Milliner is the safer pick.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia (Jr.)

Cornerback is Tampa Bay’s most obvious need position, but if Jarvis Jones slips to #13, I’m betting that Mark Dominik will be there to catch his fall. The Bucs didn’t flinch when they pulled the trigger on Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers – prospects who slipped due to long-term medical concerns – so why would they hesitate to select Jones? There’s no doubt that Jones could be a plug ‘n’ play starter at SLB that could bolster Tampa Bay’s mediocre pass-rush; but for how long will his body allow him to do it?

Also considered: QB Tyler Wilson…Josh Freeman continues to regress and is going into the final year of his rookie contract. Just thought I’d throw that out there…DT Johnathan Hankins/DT Jesse WilliamsThe Bucs will likely resign F.A. Roy Miller, but if they don’t, a hole will be created alongside Gerald McCoy…CB Xavier Rhodes/CB Johnthan BanksIf Jones isn’t available, then the choice is between these two. Rhodes’ aggressive style could make him a better fit in Tampa’s scheme…S Matt ElamGod help the receiver crossing the middle on Barron/Elam.

14. Carolina Panthers – Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio State (Jr.)

Ron and Dwan Edwards are hot garbage. Unless the Panthers acquire a free agent like Randy Starks, it will be an upset if they don’t pick from among a deep and talented batch of DTs in the first round. Considering that Carolina currently has $136 million committed to the salary cap, I can’t imagine that they’ll be major players in free agency.

When motivated, Hankins is a load on the inside, capable of making a huge mess that Luke Kuechly would be more than happy to clean up.

Also considered: WR Cordarelle PattersonA darkhorse. Ample ammo for Cam Newton should always be a top priority…OG Chance Warmack…A starter opposite Silatolu is needed…DT Jesse Williams…Williams is a fine run-stopper, but Hankins’ game offers more dimensions…CB Xavier Rhodes/CB Johnthan BanksThe Panthers need to trim some fat to get their cap number down to a manageable figure. Chris Gamble could be in grave danger…S Matt Elam…Haruki Nakumara started at safety in 2012. ‘Nuff said.

15. New Orleans Saints – Sharrif Floyd DT Florida (Jr.)

I agonized over this pick. Ezekiel Ansah would sure look good in black and gold – he’s even named after a saint, fer chrissakes – but, although the Saints had a year to forget in 2012, they’re a veteran team that will be in it to win it in 2013. The prodigious Ansah will need time to develop at the next level; the Saints need a defender that can hit the ground running and make an impact from jump street. Floyd’s three years of SEC experience was the deciding factor in my decision between the two prospects.

Floyd’s versatility would play well in New Orleans. He could immediately replace the awful Sedrick Ellis as the knifing 3-tech in 4-3 sets, or neatly bookend Cameron Jordan when Spags shows 3-4 looks.

Also considered: WR Cordarrelle Patterson…Brees likes to spread it around. The Saints can never have enough talented targets…OT Eric Fisher…New Orleans could do a whole lot better than Jermon Bushrod and Zach Strief at OT, and Bushrod is a free agent…DE Ezekiel AnsahDT Jesse Williams…The Saints already have a promising man-mountain in Akiem Hicks…CB Xavier Rhodes/CB Johnthan Banks/S Matt ElamThere isn’t a job safe in the Saints secondary this offseason.

16. St. Louis Rams – Chance Warmack OG Alabama

With two first-rounders, the Rams could be looking to move up for Luke Joeckel. If they swap picks with Oakland, the Raiders would definitely be interested in Warmack. Cooper Carlisle and Mike Brisiel are one of the worst guard duos in the league. Carlisle is a free agent and Brisiel bombed after signing a 5-year, $20 million contract. Brisiel’s talents are specific to the zone-stretch system and he has concussion issues, so he could be one-and-done in Oakland.

If the Rams stay put at #16, the choice would still be Warmack. LG Shelley Smith has no business starting in the NFL.

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Author: Micheal Profetta

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  • yeah Rams aren’t going to trade up to grab Joeckel. Fisher teams rarely draft OL in first round and certainly aren’t going to sacrifice a first to move up and grab Joeckel. It makes far more sense for them to stand pat grab Warmack/Matthews/Fisher and a S, WR at 22.

    • Mprofetta

      I don’t buy into the notion that something can’t happen simply because it hasn’t happened yet. Trends are shattered in every draft. Dallas selecting Tyron Smith (when many thought they wouldn’t just because they hadn’t drafted an O-lineman in the first round for so long) is an obvious example. I’ve heard the Fisher/O-line argument before, but I won’t let it sway my decision.

      Joeckel is the cleanest prospect in this draft. If I’m the Rams, I give up both of the first rounders and even the second rounder to move up for him. According to the trade value chart, that’s just about what they’d need to sacrifice in order to move up to #3, which is why I have Minter going to S.L. in the 2nd round. Minter is Oakland’s pick.

  • I also do not understand the Rams spending a 2nd on Kevin Minter. They already have Laurinitis and his contract will stop them from releasing him.

  • mgchat76

    As a Bucs fan, I don’t believe Jarvis Jones will even be on their draft board. Yes, they took Clayborne and Bowers despite medical concerns, but that was pre-Schiano. I don’t see him signing off on someone with a history of spinal problems after what he experienced with Eric LeGrand. I know LeGrand’s traumatic injury is different than chronic spinal stenosis, but I just don’t see it happening.
    Also, I don’t see Nassib drafted in the first 3 rounds. Is this an oversight, or do you really think he won’t be a top 90 pick?

    • Mprofetta

      Schiano will have his say come draft day, but it’s ultimately Dominik who makes the personnel decisions.

      Interesting point about LeGrand. I’m no doctor, but as far as I know, spinal stenosis is a degenerative condition. The main concern is that it could potentially shorten Jones’ NFL lifespan. I’m not sure that it would make Jones any more likely to sustain an injury as rare and catastrophic as what we saw with LeGrand.

      Omitting Nassib wasn’t an oversight, but it bugged me nonetheless. He could go anywhere from the early 2nd to the 4th round, depending on how he fares in workouts. I’m a ‘Cuse fan, so I’d like to think that I have a pretty good read on Nassib. His evolution throughout his career was impressive. He’s a smart guy who took to the NFL-level coaching of Marrone and Nate Hackett, but he’s by no means a great talent. He can pick apart a defense when given a clean pocket, but he falls apart under pressure. He still makes questionable decisions and may think a little too highly of his arm strength. My main concern with Nassib is that we’ve already seen his ceiling.

  • neighborhooddrunkpart2

    Hmmm what do I start. 1. The steelers do not need at NT, they have Steve mclendon,hebron fangupo, and Alameda Ta’amu on the roster. 2.The
    steelers will not waste their 1st,2nd or 3rd round pick on o-linemen.
    They just drafted Mike Adams and Kelvin Beachum last year, Marcus
    Gilbert the year before. The steelers are stubborn when it comes to
    draft linemen with a premium pick(1-3 rounds). 3.Now I agree to drafting Kevin
    Minter, Matt Elam or Cordarrelle Patterson in the 1st round.

    2nd round: I like the Tony Jefferson pick. Prefer Philip Thomas, but Jefferson is cool.

    3rd round: Hell no. Johnson is not Buck ILB, Gerald Hodges would be a better fit.

    • Mprofetta

      Happy New Year, neighborhood drunk.

      1. I wouldn’t go as far as to say there isn’t a need at NT, but you’re right; they have a few intriguing options on the roster. None are sure things, though.
      2. Adams is a RT. Beachum and Gilbert are RG/RT types. If the Steelers ever decide to start Adams at LT full-time, they may as well go ahead and set up the funeral arrangements for Big Ben.
      3. I like Thomas, but I like Jefferson more. Either would be a solid fit.
      4. I think that Johnson is underrated. He’s versatile enough to play either ILB spot and is a quiet leader.

      • neighborhooddrunkpart2

        Happy New Year, to you Mprofetta

        1.True true,I didn’t think about it like that.Gilbert and Adams only played RT this
        year. Hopefully we bring Max Starks back, Then trade up for Jake
        Matthews next year. I hope we bring in a good o-line coach in also.

        3.yeah I agree with that.

        4.All I see with him is a 2-down ILB. I rather the steelers to draft Kevin Minter,Khaseem Greene or Arthur Brown in the 1st.

        Any WR,RB’s you like that would be a good fit for the steelers?

    • Grizza

      forgot DeCastro from last years draft also. Elam is a HUGE reach, Vaccaro would be a much better pick at #17.

      • Mprofetta

        None of those recently drafted O-linemen is a viable candidate at left tackle; that’s the problem spot.

        I like Elam better than Vaccaro, and wouldn’t hesitate to draft Elam in the mid/late 1st round if I was a GM…but beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

  • Reggie

    As a Lions fan it is not a bad draft. Bjoern Werner would be my option in this scenario…very sad Moore is gone but I think he is better than Werner and should be drafted higher based on his production and athletic ability. In the second Round Kenny Vaccaro would be a better option to me than Eric Reid. We need more of a center fielding safety to complement Delmas. Still Reid has potential but is more raw and unproven. In Round 3 Khaseem Green would be awsome…so would Frederick and Warford. Its hard not to beef up the OL but I do love Green.
    I would change the draft to look like
    1. Werner
    2. Vaccaro
    3. Frederick/Warford: Warford is the better OG but if Frederick can play Center than he has more versatility. Depends on if the Lions want a guard or center. Bill Naggy is intriuging but injury prone. Good mock and I am glad you are back writing….when do we get more off season reports? Are you waiting for coaches to get settled?

    • Mprofetta

      I think that Werner is a touch overrated right now. He has great instincts and short-area quickness, but he’s not very fast and has a little trouble changing direction. I can’t see him standing up in a 3-4 at the next level.

      I hate to open up this can of worms, but I think a lot of the “high motor” talk associated with Werner is based more on the classic “white athlete” assumption than on film study. I’m not suggesting that Werner doesn’t leave it all on the field, but I think that Damontre Moore has a higher-revving motor and more snarl to his game. Werner is a beast in spurts, but there are times when he appears to be in cruise control…almost robotic. That may just be his style…but sometimes I don’t like it. Moore plays like his ass is on fire at all times. His SEC experience doesn’t hurt his chances of being drafted ahead of Werner, either.

      To me, Vaccaro and Reid are both combo safeties…that’s not a bad thing. If they were the starters on my team, I’d want Vaccaro closer to the line of scrimmage. He’s the more reliable tackler and a very effective blitzer. Reid’s overaggression gets him in trouble near the LOS sometimes. Vaccaro might be a little stiff to serve as the last line of defense.

      I thought about a guard for the Lions in the third round, but I think the third is where we’ll see a lot of 4-3 OLBs pop off. Finding a decent guard just isn’t that hard. The Lions will need a RG after they cut Peterman, but you can almost always get a decent stopgap on the cheap during roster cuts. Just look at what the Patriots have done with Brian Waters and Donald Thomas over the last few seasons.

      You nailed it with Frederick. Frederick, Warford, and Gabe Jackson are kind of lumped together in that 2nd to 3rd round range. Frederick’s versatility could serve as a tie-breaker in a lot of NFL war rooms.

      I’m glad to be writing again. I have most of the team primers outlined. Like you guessed, I’m just waiting for the coach/GM carousels to stop spinning.

      • Reggie

        I agree Werner is slightly over rated. I thought he was under rated at the beginning of the season and then when he went into the top 3 I was thinking over rated. He got a bulk amount of his sacks vs inferior opponents. I like his work vs the run and still think he is a 8-10 sack and near elite vs the run but not in the same class as Moore. Moore is someone you build a defense around. Werner is a nice piece to a defense. Safety class is deep and I am not sold on any of them early 2nd….to be honest I like Jefferson a ton because of his center fielding ability and his intangibles. Not an elite athlete as Vaccaro and Reid. Donald Thomas makes me sad since the Lions cut him and then complain about their OG talent. I think you under rate Warford though. Guy is the #2 OG to me and isnt that far behind Warmack. Lions OL needs to be upgraded unless people like Jason Fox and Bill Naggy can develop. I cannot wait to read more of your articles in the near future. Any guesses on the remaining job openings?

        • Mprofetta

          I completely agree with your take on Werner. I like Moore better, but I don’t think that he’s a guy you build a defense around, either. This is shaping up to be a deep draft, but I’m thinking that there won’t be many future Hall-of-Famers to be found near the top. Warmack could be the best bet. To me, guys like Moore, Lotulelei, Werner, and Milliner are top-notch complementary pieces, not revolutionary talents. If any defensive prospect emerges as an all-timer, it’ll probably be one of the three freaks (Ansah, Jordan, and Mingo)…or they could just as easily bust.

          I’ve almost given up on guessing who the new coaches will be. There’s so much agent-fed misinformation that it’s dizzying. About all I can say with certainty is that the Bears want an offensive mind. Mike McCoy would be my best guess there. I think that Arians would fit in Cleveland. I had a hard time wrapping my head around the idea of Chip Kelly in Cleveland. It’s not that he isn’t capable of adapting his approach to the talent given to him, but he’ll always be a “speed kills” kinda guy. The AFC North always has and always will be a punch you in the mouth division. In San Diego, I’m guessing it’ll be a big-name guy who has a touch with QBs. Homgren and Gruden make sense, but McCoy could make even more sense…and come a whole lot cheaper. What McCoy did with Tebow was miraculous. I’m thinking Jay Gruden in Philadelphia, and Ray Horton getting the big promotion in Arizona. I haven’t a clue with Jacksonville. I’m open to suggestions.

          • Mprofetta

            Nix the Jacksonville comment. I expect Mularkey to get canned when the new GM is hired, but he’s not gone yet.

          • Reggie

            Its too bad with Mularkey. I am not blown away by him but I thought he did well with the talent he had on offense. He developed Shorts and Blackmon into a dynamic young duo. He made Henne and Gabbert into mediocre talents which is something to be credited for. If MJD was healthy all season they might have won 2 more games. I am not advocating him but if the Jaguars were to name Caldwell as their GM maybe Mularkey gets another season. Horton would be nice in Arizona. McCoy would be a solid coach as well as Gruden. If I were a Browns fan I would want McCoy more than Kelly. As a Lions fan I was hoping they would dump Schwartz and pick up Whisenhunt…but I am coming to terms with keeping Schwartz for one more season and see if he turns it around when the seat is very warm.
            This draft is nice for Detroit since they do not need another elite talent but complementary pieces. Suh, Fairley, and Delmas are elite players on defense and finding a few more pieces would do well. On offense we have an elite WR, a promising QB, and a young LT in Reiff. Improving the depth at WR and improving the interior OL is all that is needed. If I were living in a dream we would draft
            1. Damontre Moore
            2. Xavier Rhodes
            3. Larry Warford
            and in FA improve at safety and RB

  • bauercody

    I know you aren’t a big Tyler Eifert guy but is not mocking him in the first 3 rounds an oversight?

    As far as the Packers draft, I would be ok with it. There is still a lot of talent at the end of the 1st round I would prefer to try and trade back.
    Depending on what we do in the first round I think it would be awfully tough to pass on Barret Jones at the end of the 2nd.

    Taking Marcus Lattimore in the 3rd round is a big gamble.

    • Mprofetta

      Oversight with Eifert. Good eye. He’d be right there with Ertz for the Packers.

      Trading back would be ideal. Pick up an extra pick and perhaps target Gavin Escobar on the second day.

      I was definitely being optimistic with Lattimore. He could go undrafted…or maybe he attacks his rehab with vigor and sneaks into the third round. Not sure. The Bengals definitely need a runner to challenge the Lawfirm, though.

  • JonJonsenfromWisconsin

    I like the work you did here. Isn’t Ertz at 27 a Golden Domer, though? Thrilled you did not have the Packers taking a Center/Guard in the first too.

    Who do you like at ILB in the late first or second??

    • Mprofetta

      Glad you like the mock, JJfW. The Packers need a center, but there obviously isn’t one worth taking in the first. I could see them drafting Matt Stankiewitch in the 6th-7th round. He strikes me as one of those blue collar types that Thompson usually goes for.

      Andrew Jackson would be my favorite ILB, but he’s probably returning to WKU. Here are my ILB rankings:

      (I’m excluding A. Brown & Ogletree; I project them as 4-3 OLBs, although Brown might have a shot at MLB if he bulks up.)

      1)Te’o (mid-1st round)
      2) Minter (2nd) I’m not a huge Minter fan.
      3) N. Johnson (3rd-4th)
      4) J. Bostic (3rd-4th)
      5) K. Alonso (3rd-5th) May be best as a SAM.

      From there, it falls off to late round/priority FA, special teams types like A.J. Klein.

  • Skinsfan

    No secondary?

    • Mprofetta

      I thought about it. Hall and Wilson are okay at the corners, although Hall is expensive. Your boys obviously need a few safeties. Protecting Griffin is priority #1, though. I like Dallas Thomas’ ability to play LG or RT, both potentially need positions for the ‘Skins. He’s surprisingly athletic for such a big guy; he has the feet for the ZBS. I probably could have held off on the TE, and I’m not a big fan of Jordan Reed. I’d take Escobar, Otten, Toilolo, and even Nick Kasa over Reed. I’ll be moving away from the Reed pick in future mocks. The new mock will be up by tomorrow.

      • Skinsfan

        It’s a little tough to narrow down what they will do until after free agency hits. They might pull the trigger on Bryd, who knows? RT is a need and I’d also agree that TE would be a nice addition. A returner wouldn’t surprise me either. Banks is just horrible. Whether they go with a CB/KR or a WR/KR, something has to give. CB and S seem like priority #1 though. Always a pleasure reading your mocks.