Profetta’s Two Round 2013 NFL Mock Draft

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"Jarvis Jones"

Jones tops Profetta’s second mock attempt

With A.J. McCarron predictably laying an egg less than 24 hours after I chose him to bat leadoff in my first 2013 NFL Mock Draft for NFL’s Future, it’s back to the lab for yours truly.

I used the current draft order in my first mock. This time around, I’ve taken the liberty of predicting every single game in the remaining NFL schedule (including the playoffs), and I’m using the resulting records as my draft order. I’m sick like that.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)- Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia (Jr.)

Blaine Gabbert gets a stay of execution. Jacksonville is dead last in the league in sacks (again) with a measly ten…that’s less than J.J. Watt has alone. The Jags will want to look into Jones’ 2009 neck injury and ensuing transfer from USC before pulling the trigger on the draft’s most explosive pass-rusher. Considering Jones’ ridiculous production since arriving in Athens, I’m guessing that there will be no cause for hesitation.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (3-13)- Geno Smith QB West Virginia

There’s some question as to whether Smith is worth a slot near the top of the 2013 NFL Draft. It won’t matter, because when it comes to the NFL Draft and quarterbacks, it’s all about supply and demand. Kansas City’s desperation will force their hand.

3. Cleveland Browns (3-13)- Damontre Moore DE Texas A & M (Jr.)

With a stout, run-stopping triangle of Rubin/Taylor/Jackson, a shutdown corner (Haden), an excellent all-around safety (Ward), and a couple of solid up-and-comers (Sheard, J-M Johnson), most of the parts are in place for a potentially dominant defense in Cleveland. Moore could be the elite pass-rusher that takes Dick Jauron’s stop unit to the next level.

4. Arizona Cardinals (5-11)- Luke Joeckel OT Texas A & M (Jr.)

Aldon Smith…Chris Long…Robert Quinn…Chris Clemons…Bruce Irvin…the Cardinals are going to have to come up with a whole lot better than those saloon doors that they currently employ at offensive tackle for any shot at being competitive in the rapidly-improving NFC West. A lights out pass-protector and flawless technician, Joeckel could be the safest pick near the top of the draft.

5. Carolina Panthers (5-11)- Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio State (Jr.)

It could be time to tear down the Edwards Wall. The only decision for the Panthers here is whether they prefer Star Lotulelei or Hankins. The two should remain neck-and-neck as the predraft process unfolds, but my money says that Big Hank’s enormous upside allows him to win the day.

6. Oakland Raiders (5-11)- Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU (Jr.)

The Raiders have eleven sacks through nine games. That’s unacceptable. Mingo is a Jevon Kearse doppelganger with limitless upside.

Should the Raiders address the D-line during free agency, this pick could be Manti Te’o. Releasing Rolando McClain and drafting Te’o would give Oakland a true defensive leader and officially put GM Reggie McKenzie’s stamp on the organization.      

7. New York Jets (5-11)- Bjoern Werner DE/OLB Florida State (Jr.)

Aaron Maybin is already gone. Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas should soon follow. Werner’s versatility makes him a nice fit at either OLB spot in Rex Ryan’s complex scheme…assuming Rex is still around next season.

8. Miami Dolphins (5-11)- Taylor Lewan OT Michigan (Jr.)

Jake Long’s days in Miami could be numbered. Lewan may physically resemble Long, but he’s more athletic and should be a better fit in the Dolphins zone-blocking scheme.

The Dolphins desperately need a big-play threat opposite Brian Hartline, so Justin Hunter could be a darkhorse here if they don’t acquire someone like Dwayne Bowe.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (6-10)- Star Lotulelei DT Utah

There will be mass upheaval in Philadelphia this offseason. Fletcher Cox may be the only current DT who is guaranteed a roster spot next season. Lotulelei offers excellent value at #9. 

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10)- Manti Te’o ILB Notre Dame

Buffalo’s linebackers have been atrocious this season. Te’o is a three-down force capable of being a difference-maker from Jump Street.

11. St. Louis Rams (from Washington, 6-10)- Jake Matthews OT Texas A & M (Jr.)

If the Rams don’t make a move up for Joeckel, his bookend could make a helluva consolation prize. Matthews is a first-rate run blocker with the ability to man the left side if necessary.

12. San Diego Chargers (6-10)- Dee Milliner CB Alabama (Jr.)"Dee Milliner"

Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason are toast. Both will be free agents after this season. Milliner is the physical prototype with “shutdown” potential.  

13. St. Louis Rams (6-9-1)- Matt Elam S Florida (Jr.)

Do you remember Jeff Fisher’s favorite Titan, Blaine Bishop? Elam is the souped-up version.

14. Detroit Lions (7-9)- Sam Montgomery DE LSU (Jr.)

Even if the Lions resign Cliff Avril, a replacement for soon-to-be 34-year-old Kyle Vanden Bosch should be high on Martin Mayhew’s priority list. Montgomery would address a need while satisfying Mayhew’s “BPA” criteria.

15. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)- Chance Warmack OG Alabama

Dallas is averaging a paltry 85.3 yards rushing through nine games. DeMarco Murray’s continuing injury woes and Felix Jones’ continuing suckiness are obviously factors, but the fact remains that the Cowboys need upgrades at every O-line position with the exception of left tackle. Warmack is a flat-out nasty run-blocker. Nice knowin’ ya, Nate Livings.

With Romo due to become a free agent after the ’13 season, this is the first spot where I seriously considered Matt Barkley. Jerry Jones seems convinced that Romo is an elite QB, so I’m guessing that Romo isn’t going anywhere. Besides, Barkley and Romo are just too similar (overrated/can’t win when it counts).

16. Tennessee Titans (7-9)- Tony Jefferson S Oklahoma (Jr.)

Jefferson made a big impact upon arriving at Norman (BIG 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year) and hasn’t let up since. He has the versatility, instincts, and athleticism to become a Polamalu-type force in the Tennessee secondary.

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Author: Micheal Profetta

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  • Syouleski

    I’m glad to finally see Travis Frederick in someone’s draft. It’s well deserved as he’s a better prospect than Konz was. I think his future is at guard in the NFL and he’s an immediate starter. I don’t see Warmack making it down to 15. I think he goes in the top 10 to someone, possibly the Rams. Nice mock overall.

    • Mprofetta

      Thanks for stopping by. I don’t think that Warmack goes in the top ten. That is not a knock on him. Guards just aren’t that valuable. We know that Hankins, Lotulelei, Te’o, Joeckel, and G. Smith are top ten guys, and it’s safe to assume that Lewan will pop off quickly. Throw in the pass-rushers (always highly valued), and Warmack may simply be squeezed out. The ’13 draft should offer a deep crop of quality guards. Cooper, B. Jones, Warford, perhaps Frederick…and most teams will probably throw Fluker and Dallas Thomas into the mix. Teams who need a guard know that there will be value in the late first/second/third round. Like always, those teams will put the guard position on the back burner. I would have bet my pinky finger that DeCastro was a top-15 guy before the ’12 draft. Look where he landed.

      I agree with your assessment of Frederick. If he declares, he’ll jump right into a pro lineup. A lot of guys are wise to Frederick, it’s just risky business to assume that any Wisconsin prospect will declare given the history.

      • Reggie

        As a Michigan native I am surprised about all the talk on Lewand. I would let someone else take him. Give me both Texas AM Offensive Tackles over him. He has not went against great talent and when he did (Alabama and MSU) he was not overly impressive. I agree with offensive guards…when you can get someone like Warford, Dallas Thomas, ex. 1st round for a non-Pouncey and non-versatile prospect has low value.
        As a Lions fan I would be very happy with Montgomery. DE is a real issue for us. Arthur BRown over Gerald Hodges? What are your opinions of Brown since I have not seen much of him to comment.

        • Mprofetta

          Regarding Lewan, I would have agreed with you before the season, but not now. He has improved dramatically this year and still has a ton of upside. I actually thought he was pretty impressive against MSU. Gholston isn’t an easy guy to move off the line, and Lewan had him on skates. Against the Illini, he destroyed Buchanan. I’m not even sure if Lewan was as awful as advertised vs. ‘Bama, either. That penalty on Lewan was iffy and the entire UM O-line was a disorganized mess (three new starters). Living in Columbus, we get a lot of coverage of what’s going on with UM football (I think it’s one of those “Keep your friends close, your enemies even closer” situations), and Lewan has impressed even the most biased of Buckeye faithful this season. Lewan has great athleticism and balance for his size and vines for arms. Guys like him just don’t last too long on draft day.
          Great point about Warmack’s lack of versatility. If I’m looking at a guard in the top ten, he better be able to slide over and play some center. I would go as far as to say that a few zone-blocking teams could even prefer Jonathan Cooper (more athletic/versatile than Warmack).
          With Detroit’s second-rounder, Brown, Hodges and Khaseem Greene were all in the mix. All excellent athletes with great motors, all reliable and productive, all rangy and instinctive. What may separate Brown from the pack is the “big stage” opportunity he may get if KSU gets to the BCS Championship. Personally, I think that Brown has a little Ray Ray to his game, but his size and rumored character issues are concerning. I’d probably pick Hodges over Brown, but that’s me. Mayhew isn’t afraid of a risky prospect.

    • bradc11

      Difference between being a top 10 prospect and going in the top 10. I think you’re spot on in that Warmack is a top 10 prospect but unlikely to go there because of positional value. I like that your keen on Frederick. I haven’t seen him mocked in many first rounds, if any. Profetta is good like that in that he often takes chances on guys that others don’t think about. I agree that he’s a better player than Konz was and I was high on Konz. Good post, keep them coming.

  • Peter Shaw1274

    You obviously know what you are talking about. The Saints have bonifide 3-4 personel and Martez Wilson would be a Pro Bowler if they ran 3-4.

    • Mprofetta

      Thanks for the comment, Peter. I loved Wilson coming out of Illinois. It seems like he has never been properly utilized, even in college. You stand him up at 3-4 OLB, and he’ll contend for the NFL sack title.

  • In my mind I’ve said Baltimore needs an O-lineman early ( LT or C ). A quick google of Frederick says he has great size, is smart, versatile & good at diagnosing defenses. Sounds like a player the Ravens covet. Later rounds they can pick-up defenders.

    Thanks for your effort MP,,,I like it. 🙂

  • James McAdoo13

    You and Brad…a couple of OSU homers. No chance Hankins goes before Star. I also don’t see two safeties going in the top 16 picks and Barkley is going in the 1st. Too many teams need QB’s to not take a shot on him.

    • Mprofetta

      I’m actually a native New Yorker living in Columbus…and a Syracuse fan. I appreciate your opinions, but I think that it’s way too early in the predraft game to say that there’s “no chance” of anything.

      You might be right about Barkley, but I just don’t see him as a top-ten guy right now. That’s where most of the teams in need of a QB will reside. I think that we’ll see one of those teams trade up from the second round to grab him in the mid-late first. I’m not forecasting trades yet, so he’s going to hang out with Jimmy Clausen at the top of the second round for a while.

      • reggie

        I actually thought Barkley in the second round is ahead of the curve. I think people feel pressured to put him in the first round. I think your other mock with AJ as the #1 pick was a nice change and he could be worth that pick…I just dont see him leaving early. Hankins and LOtulelei are so close in talent that your could flip a coin at this point. Like you said, saying no chance of something is way too early.

  • haven

    Can’t see Smith at 2 and Barkley dropping out of the first. There needs to be some consistency. If QBs go to early and someone reaches for Smith in the top 5 then someone is reaching for Barkley in the top 10. As bad as Barkley has been all season, Smith has been the last 5 weeks. Personally I would rather gamble on Barkley’s previous 3 years. Smith does not remotely have that kind of resume.

    • Mprofetta

      To say that there needs to be more consistency suggests that I believe that Smith and Barkley are of similar value. I don’t. Smith is more athletic, durable, and efficient that Barkley. Smith has better height, arm strength, and decision-making skills than Barkley. Smith is far from a finished product and is no RG3, but he has a higher upside than Barkley.

      Barkley has obviously been a stats monster during his USC career, but Smith’s resume is nothing to sneeze at. He owns every WVU passing record and most Big East passing records worth mentioning…2x All-BE QB/Big East POY…Orange Bowl MVP (a game in which he broke every Orange Bowl passing record worth mentioning against a Clemson defense peppered with future NFLers)…Like Barkley, Smith was a blue-chip, Parade All-American and has been starting since he was a true Fr….Barkley has only 150 more career passing attempts than Smith, yet Smith has 28 less interceptions. Sorry, I’m not buying the resume argument.

  • neigherhood drunk

    I love

  • neigherhood drunk

    I love the Ansah pick for the steelers.

    • Mprofetta

      Glad you like it. The Steelers have had a lot of success mining quality 3-4 OLBs outside of the first round over the years, so giving them a pass-rusher in the first is kind of going against the grain, but Ansah that low would be a steal. Pittsburgh can no longer rely on Harrison, and Worilds hasn’t panned out. Like Brad said in his DE rankings, you couldn’t draw up a better specimen than Ansah. That guy was made in a laboratory. He’ll definitely rip the Combine a new one, so I’m not sure if he’ll even make it out of the top twenty. If Pittsburgh doesn’t go pass-rusher in the first, I could see them targeting someone like Jamie Collins on the second day.

      • neigherhood drunk

        Yeah, I agree with this.