A $22 million franchise tag price, could mean Super Mario hits the open market
The 2011 offseason was marred by the NFL lockout which stripped football fans of a proper NFL free agency period. The 2012 offseason offers a ray of hope with the class of free agents stocked with big name talent.
A lot of these guys will never see the light of free agency day but its good conversation piece. In our first edition of the Offseason Primer series we released 2012 cap projections. This edition should give the fan a pretty good idea of who they want their team to spend that money on. For over half the teams in the NFL this list is irrelevant with the money or philosophy to spend big in free agency. We aren’t likely to see another Eagles-esque spending spree but there are some names that could make dollars fly out of wallets.
Here’s a look at our top 50 NFL free agents:
1. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints: Keep dreaming. Brees is a lock to be re-signed or franchised by the Saints. New Orleans will look to make him a Saint for life.
2. Mario Williams, DE, Houston Texans: It’s going to cost the Texans $22 million to franchise Williams. Probably not going to happen, so he’s the prize of free agency. Williams is 27 and one of the premier pass rushers when healthy. He’s coming off a season ending knee injury but will have his choice of suitors.
3. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears: Forte was playing the best football of his young career before a season ending injury. One could make an argument that Forte is the most complete back in the NFL. I can’t see the Bears letting Forte walk, but stranger things have happened.
4. Carl Nicks, G, New Orleans Saints: Nicks is arguably the best guard in the NFL and he will be 27 next season. A big payday will be coming for Nicks and the Saints may not be able to afford him with Brees and Colston looming.
5. Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens: The 25-year old will most likely be franchised by Baltimore but there’s a slim possibility that they let him walk. Real slim, like not happening slim.
6. Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals: A see about a .0001% chance of the Cards letting Campbell test the market. He’s young with a ton of upside. No chance.
7. Cliff Avril, DE, Detroit Lions: Coming off an 11 sack 2011 season, Avril will receive a big payday in Detroit or elsewhere. Detroit is tight on the cap and will have to work at restructuring some contracts to fit Avril in.
8. Brandon Carr, CB, Kansas City Chiefs: 26-year old corner that is bordering on top corner status, will get top corner pay.
9. DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: Jackson’s play outweighs the potential headache that he is. Andy Reid may be ready to cut bait on Jackson which should free him up to test the market.
10. Brent Grimes, CB, Atlanta Falcons: Grimes will be 29 at the start of the season but has played at a Pro Bowl level for the past several seasons. The Falcons defense wasn’t the same when he went down to injury.
11. Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers: GB will look to franchise Finley at a decent price tag and lock him down long-term.
12. Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego Chargers: Jackson has a legitimate shot at being let loose. Teams should line up for the 29-year old receiver. The team has said they won’t tag him, so it’s re-sign or bust.
13. Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots: Welker would be higher but his age becomes a factor. He will be 31 next season and I don’t see the Pats letting him walk.
14. Cortland Finnegan, CB, Tennessee Titans: All appearances are that Finnegan will be allowed to test the market. At 28, he will have plenty of suitors.
15. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs can’t afford to lose their top target but may be forced to lose him or Carr. Bowe will be 28 next season.
16. Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills: He’s young (26 next season) but comes with some baggage. I don’t see the Bills letting him walk with their depth at receiver. He will be re-signed or franchised.
17. Tyvon Branch, S, Oakland Raiders: Branch probably should be higher on the list because of the lack of depth at the position in free agency and the draft. Branch is 25 and just hitting his stride. He has perennial Pro Bowl potential. The Raiders will make every feasible attempt to lock up Branch on a long-term deal.
18. Matt Flynn, QB, Green Bay Packers: Flynn is a polarizing guy. Some will think this is too low and some too high. Based on positional value, I felt this was a good spot. He has looked good in limited opportunities but do you want to give him a ton of money based on those limited opportunities?
19. Robert Mathis, DE, Indianapolis Colts: The Colts have some tough decisions to make this offseason. With the Peyton Manning issue looming, they may look to turn the page on this era of Colts football.
20. Marcus Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints: Colston will be 29 next season and could face the pinch in New Orleans. He’s a big target that could intrigue some teams in need…New England.
21. Red Bryant, DT, Seattle Seahawks: Bryant’s versatility to play in the 4-3 or 3-4 will intrigue a whole lot of teams. He’s a key cog in Pete Carroll’s wheel and I can’t see them letting him walk without a major fight.
22. Carlos Rogers, CB, San Francisco 49ers: SF has two major expiring contracts in their secondary. Rogers is the older of the two at 30 (31 at the start of the season) which could mean one and done in SF. He played at a high caliber in 2011 and may have earned a big deal.
23. Tracy Porter, CB, New Orleans Saints: Durability is an issue with Porter but he will just turn 26 at the beginning of next season. Young, starting corners don’t hit the open market often so Porter should have his pick of teams. I don’t see the Saints hanging on to him with all the deals they have to work out.
24. Curtis Lofton, LB, Atlanta Falcons: He’s young and plays the run as well as any LB in the NFL. There is work to be done in pass coverage but he’s a talent. The Falcons probably make him a priority.
25. Dashon Goldson, S, San Francisco 49ers: Coming off a six interception season will help Goldson a lot this offseason. He will turn 28 at the start of next season and played his best football in 2011.
26. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Lynch is coming off a 1,200 yard season in Seattle and I think they look to keep him at all costs. Hard to believe but he’ll only be 26-years old in April.
27. Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers: Smith had a breakout first season under Jim Harbaugh. He won’t ever be an first tier QB but he still has some upside. He will be 28 next season and the 49ers have made it clear that they want him back.
28. Ben Grubbs, G, Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens will have to tag or re-sign Ray Rice, so Grubbs could be lost. After giving big money to Marshall Yanda last season they may not be in a spot to hand it out to Grubbs this offseason.
29. D’Qwell Jackson, LB, Cleveland Browns: How many ILB’s played better than Jackson did in 2011? Durability and age (29 next season) may be the only issues. I don’t see the Browns letting him walk.
30. LaRon Landry, S, Washington Redskins: Landry would be higher based on talent but is sporting an Achilles injury that he opted to avoid 
surgery on. Teams will question the medical on this guy. He’s super talented and a premier player at the position. But can you trust the injury?
31. Chris Myers, C, Houston Texans: The soon to be 31-year old center is one of the most underrated blockers in the league. He’s a perfect fit in Houston and probably stays put.
32. Jared Gaither, T, San Diego Chargers: Gaither bounced around the league in 2011 before sticking with San Diego. He played well in Marcus McNeill’s absence. Back issues have plagued a promising career. He will turn 26 in March which should be good for something. When healthy, he’s a solid tackle.
33. Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts: Garcon will turn 26 next season and is coming off his best season as a pro. The Colts may look to keep Garcon which could cost them Reggie Wayne.
34. Demetrius Bell, T, Buffalo Bills: It doesn’t look like the Bills will be able to keep Bell. He turns 28 in May but is coming off a knee injury. Given the premium of his position he could still fetch some cash on the open market.
35. Brandon Lloyd, WR, St. Louis Rams: Lloyd was dealt to the Rams after getting his wish to play with Josh McDaniels. Will he follow McDaniels to NE this offseason?
36. John Abraham, DE, Atlanta Falcons: He’s old (33) but hasn’t showed signed of significant detioration. He probably doesn’t get big money because he will be 34 before the start of next season.
37. Sione Pouha, DT, New York Jets: One of the most underrated nose tackles in the league. The downside is that Pouha will be 33 in 2012.
38. Jeremy Mincey, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars: Mincey is a solid DE that can pressure the quarterback. Jacksonville will look to re-sign him for a decent price or he could hit the open market.
39. Evan Mathis, G, Philadelphia: Mathis may have played his way into a long-term deal with his performance in 2011. The downside is that he will turn 31 next season.
40. Terrell Thomas, CB, New York Giants: Thomas’ talent deserves a higher spot but his season ending injury may deter teams from giving him top money.
41. Jason Jones, DT, Tennessee Titans: Jones has played both DT and DE in Tennessee. A team that could lock the 25-year old into one position could unlock the wealth of potential. Tennessee would be wise to keep him around and play him inside.
42. Anthony Spencer, OLB, Dallas Cowboys: The 28 year old hasn’t lived up to the hype in his career. He’s coming off a disappointing 2011 season but has shown flashes of dominance as a pass rusher.
43. Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts: At 33, he may not have much left in the tank. He will turn 34 next season but could be a solid option for several teams. I don’t see Indy re-signing Wayne.
44. Aaron Ross, CB, New York Giants: Ross will be 30 next season but has shown the ability to be a solid CB on a good team. The Giants may let him walk because of his age and Prince’s presence in the Big Apple.
45. Stephen Tulloch, LB, Detroit Lions: Tulloch is coming off a fantastic first season in Detroit. He was on a one-year deal with the Lions and could be looking for a long-term deal. He’s 27 years old.
46. Dan Connor, LB, Carolina Panthers: Connor is a young LB that could be a solid starter in the league. If Carolina cuts him loose, he could have a lot of suitors. He should be reasonably priced given his experience.
47. Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Denver Broncos: Bunkley underperformed in Philly but played well for the Broncos last season.
48. Dwight Lowery, S, Jacksonville Jaguars: Lowery didn’t pan out at corner but his move to FS may have resurrected his career. The 26-year old will be tough to pry away from Jacksonville.
49. Scott Wells, C, Green Bay Packers: The Pack will look to re-sign Wells. He played really well in 2011 and has developed into a quality starting center.
50. Paul Soliai, DT, Miami Dolphins: Soliai will hit the open market. He’s a solid run stopper that could have significant value for teams needing a NT. He will be 29 next season.
Best of the rest: Thomas Decoud, Fred Davis, Michael Bush, David Hawthorne, London Fletcher, Mario Manningham, Antonio Garay, Rashean Mathis, Reggie Nelson, Robert Meachum, Michael Griffin, Laurent Robinson, Peyton Hillis, Pat Sims, Jarrett Johnson, Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Cedric Benson, Anthony Collins
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