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Will Peyton's Place become Andrew's?

1. Indianapolis Colts- Andrew Luck QB Stanford (Jr.)   Two things: The Colts will have the #1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, and will not trade it. If Indy was going to get a “W” this season, it would have happened against the Jaguars on Sunday. Their two-game cushion in the race for Luck may as well be ten games. There just isn’t enough talent on this roster to compete, and a million Jeff Saturday-led player meetings won’t change that fact. This organization is a train wreck from top to bottom, and those who think that a 36-year old guy with debilitating neck/back injuries will just jump back into the saddle and allow the Colts to pick up right where they left off last season are mistaken. Given the nature of Manning’s injuries, there’s no guarantee that he’ll ever play again, let alone rescue a team whose warts have been irrevocably exposed in his absence. The Colts are on the cusp of a full-scale rebuilding project, and to trade the rights to the best QB prospect since Manning and a chance at another dozen years of AFC South domination would be ridiculous.

In a classic example of the “spit on your heroes” mentality, there has been a recent, semi-backlash against Luck and the hoopla that has surrounded him for a few years now. Don’t buy it. Phil Simms’ comments regarding Luck were a transparent attempt to stay at the forefront of a broadcasting field that has increasingly become more about controversial sound bites than substance, and those who think that Luck was in any way “exposed” against Oregon are reaching. We all knew that the Ducks’ team speed would be a matchup nightmare for the Cardinal, and that was the reason Stanford lost- not anything Luck did or didn’t do. Overanalysis aside, Luck remains the no-brainer #1 overall pick in my 2012 NFL Mock Draft and a worthy heir to Manning.

2. Washington Redskins- Matt Barkley QB USC (Jr.)   I’ll be surprised if the Redskins get another win this season. Unless it’s Joe Gibbs, head coaches typically get two years to succeed before impatient owner Dan Snyder lets the axe fall, so I’m guessing that it’s curtains for Mike Shanahan. Following Shanny out the door should be his two-headed miscalculation at quarterback that will ultimately cost him his job. Barring a trade for Peyton Manning (!!), there’s no way the ‘Skins pass on a QB in the first round. (Manning seems like a bright guy, so I’m guessing that he’ll retire and get a head start on his career as the greatest color commentator or offensive coordinator in the history of the universe before ever setting foot in D.C.)

Barkley has steadily improved throughout his career at USC (which scouts love) and is playing as well as any QB in the nation this season. He has already set a career mark for TD passes (29) to go along with 2,782 yards and a 66.8 completion percentage.

I think that Robert Griffin III will be the #2 pick in more than a few 2012 NFL mock drafts before long. RG3 has a higher ceiling than Barkley, but with whispers of a possible Bruce Allen/Jon Gruden reunion in D.C., I have a feeling that Barkley could get the nod as a “safer” fit in Chuckie’s preferred WCO.

3. Minnesota Vikings- Matt Kalil OT US (Jr.)   If Kalil is available to the Vikings, this pick is a done deal. Christian Ponder has an extensive injury history, so finding a replacement for journeyman guard overmatched LT Charlie Johnson should be the Vikings’ top priority this offseason. Kalil is a surefire Pro Bowler on the blindside with no detectable flaws in his game.

High-quality left tackles never make it to the free agent market and there will be no starting-caliber left tackles available beyond the first round of this draft, so even if Minnesota is ultimately slotted a little lower than #3 in my 2012 NFL Mock Draft and Kalil is off the board, I’ll make sure that Jonathan Martin or Riley Reiff is the pick. The Vikings simply can’t afford to get too cute next April.

4. Cleveland Browns- Trent Richardson RB Alabama (Jr.)   Although they have three wins, I like the Browns to pick ahead of the Rams, Dolphins and Panthers in 2012. Looking at their remaining schedule, next Sunday’s matchup with the Jaguars is the only chance the Browns have to outscore an opponent for the rest of the season. The offense is just abysmal.

Colt McCoy is feeling the heat inCleveland, but as tempting as RG3 may be, I don’t think that the Browns will draft a QB here. Mike Holmgren wears his reputation for finding QBs outside of the first round like a badge of honor, so I’m guessing that McCoy gets one more season to prove him right. Besides, unless drastic upgrades are made at the offensive skill positions, I doubt that RG3 or Landry Jones would fare much better than McCoy.

With Peyton Hillis about as popular as Art Modell in Cleveland these days (and Montario Hardesty too injury-prone to rely on), there’s a screaming need for a versatile, workhorse runner that McCoy can lean on. Richardson offers the potential to be a Marshall Faulk-type weapon at the next level and shouldn’t be regarded as a reach in the top five.

5. Miami Dolphins- Robert Griffin III QB Baylor (Jr.)   The ‘Fins have won two in a row and could make it three against the fading Bills next Sunday. They’re all but out of the running for Luck, but with little chance of Tony Sparano or Chad Henne returning to South Beach next season, Miami will still target a new QB for whoever the new head coach may be in 2012.

Owner Stephen Ross craves an exciting product, so given a choice of Landry Jones orGriffin, it’s RG3 all the way.  Beyond being a superior athlete to Jones, Griffin is just the better QB prospect. He’s more consistent, shows better poise in the pocket, and offers greater upside.

Judging from all of the draft experts who are only now recognizing RG3 with tentative spots in the mid-late first round, I get the sense that there still isn’t a full appreciation for just how remarkable Griffin’s accomplishments at Baylor really are. On a team that features a defensive unit peppered with guys who, by all rights, should be playing forMcNeeseState, RG3 has been consistently excellent. He’s the singular reason that the Bears are on the cusp of consecutive bowl appearances following a 15-year bowl drought. Without Griffin, I doubt that the Bears would defeat Rice, let alone TCU and Missouri. RG3 is a rare talent who could go as high as #2, and definitely won’t escape the top 10 of the 2012 NFL Draft if he declares.

6. Carolina Panthers- Morris Claiborne CB LSU (Jr.)   Chris Gamble has been rejuvinated under Ron Rivera, and Captain Munnerlyn is a gamer, but there’s very little depth at corner, and at 5-8, Munnerlyn’s ideal role would be as a deluxe nickel. Claiborne has emerged as the undisputed #1 corner available in the 2012 NFL Draft, but (in a way) is still underrated. In contrast to the colorful “Honey Badger” and his big-play exploits, Claiborne is almost boring. Like Darrelle Revis, Claiborne is so technically sound and fluid in coverage that he mirrors receivers seemingly without effort. Also like Revis, when QBs do test Claiborne, he usually makes them pay by utilizing his great ball skills, long arms, and sticky hands to make a play on the ball. Like every great corner, it’s easy to take his consistent excellence for granted.

Panthers’ fans may clamor for Blackmon here, but with potential free agents like Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Robert Meacham, Vincent Jackson, etc., set to hit the market, and at least one of a quality group of prospects (Dwight Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Nick Toon) likely to be available to Carolina near the top of the second round, it shouldn’t be too hard for GM Marty Hurney to address the WR position. Elite corners like Claiborne, however, don’t grow on trees. Value, value, value.

7. St. Louis Rams- Jonathan Martin OT Stanford (Jr.)   With Al Harris trying to find some elbow-room on the Rams’ crowded I.R., St. Louis is reduced to the likes of Justin King, Marquis Johnson, Roderick Hood and Josh Gordy at corner. Obviously, calling for them to win even one more game is risky business. However, with a remaining schedule that offers Seattle, Arizona twice, and the 49ers at home in the final week of the season (San Francisco will have clinched a bye), I’m guessing that the Rams will scrape together another two or three wins- enough to fall behind the Browns, Dolphins and Panthers in my 2012 NFL Mock Draft order.

Justin Blackmon could be tempting here, but the recent acquisition of Brandon Lloyd mutes the need for a WR. Of greater concern is the O-line. The Rams lead the NFL in sacks allowed (32), and have given up an astounding 71 QB hits. LT Rodger Saffold has regressed this season (8.5 sacks allowed) and would benefit from a move to the right side. All of the wide outs in the world won’t help St. Louis if Bradford is in a body cast, so I expect GM Billy Devaney, who has been all about building the Rams from the inside out in recent drafts, to go with the safe, need-filling option in Martin.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars- Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State (Jr.)   It was recently reported that GM Gene Smith turned down a contract extension, so I’m making this pick under the assumption that neither he, nor Jack Del Rio, will return to Jacksonville in 2012. Without Smith around to filter any prospect who even hints at “character concern” from the Jaguars’ draft board, Blackmon, who has been consistently dominant in Oklahoma State’s high-octane attack, is the easy pick here. Blaine Gabbert gets very jumpy in the pocket without wideouts who can get open quickly, and current starters Mike Thomas and Jason Hill would be better suited as the #3 and #4 options. If the Jags shore up the WR position in free agency, they could invest in more protection for Gabbert here (Riley Reiff), or perhaps draft Dre Kirkpatrick to replace aging free agent Rashean Mathis.

9. Kansas City Chiefs- Landry Jones QB Oklahoma (Jr.)   I’ve always been an advocate of teams going for a potential franchise quarterback even if their incumbent QB is considered “okay” (think Roethlisberger/Maddox in 2004). Matt Cassel can win you ten games if everything around him is operating flawlessly, but there’s no way in hell that he’ll ever lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. Winning championships is the name of the game, so why would Kansas City pass on a potential upgrade at the game’s most important position?

Some consider Jones to be the second best QB in this draft, but I don’t see it. At 6-4/230 with a rocket arm, he looks like the QB you’d want coming off of the bus, but I’ll take RG3 or Barkley, and you can keep those 2-3 inches of height. Jones has every tool in the shed, but what I see on film is a rhythm passer who gets thrown out of sorts when under even a moderate amount of pressure. He’s more Blaine Gabbert than Sam Bradford, IMO. Still, his upside should keep him in the top 10, and he could find a comfortable fit in Todd Haley’s offensive scheme that often operates out of the spread.

10. Arizona Cardinals- Riley Reiff OT Iowa (Jr.)   In the 2011 NFL Draft, Arizona went BPA at #5 with Patrick Peterson, but I don’t think that they have the luxury of going in any other direction but offensive tackle in the first round of the ’12 Draft. The Cards have allowed 31 sacks this year, as starting tackles Levi Brown and Brandon Keith have performed miserably. Both are impending free agents. Brown (the blindside protector) is an excellent run-blocker, but a matador in pass protection (NFL-leading 9.5 sacks allowed). If the Cardinals re-sign him, he really needs to return to his natural RT post. Arizona will never get a fair return on their investment in Kevin Kolb unless this position is shored up.

Reiff is not a Matt Kalil-level prospect, but he’s right there with Jonathan Martin, and the demand for quality offensive tackles should prevent him from falling out of the top 15. A former tight end/defensive end, he’s a bulked-up 300 lbs., but makes up for a lack of natural strength with excellent length, balance and athleticism.

11. Seattle Seahawks- Ronnell Lewis DE/OLB Oklahoma (Jr.)   Fearless prediction: Ronnell Lewis will be drafted ahead of Quinton Coples. Another prediction: Even if Landry Jones is available to Seattle in the ’12 Draft, they’ll still choose Lewis.

I’m guessing that the Seahawks’ NFC West title and monumental playoff upset last season will buy Pete Carroll another year as head coach, regardless of Seattle’s record this season. However, he could be on a short leash in 2012, so he may have reservations about putting his livelihood in the hands of a rookie QB. I’m thinking that we’ll see Matt Flynn or Jason Campbell under center for the Seahawks next year.

“So if they don’t draft a QB, why wouldn’t they draft Dre Kirkpatrick to replace injury-prone free agent Marcus Trufant?”

Because the Seahawks already have two towering, physical, young corners who struggle with speedy wideouts in Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner. I could see the ‘Hawks drafting Morris Claiborne in a heartbeat, but Kirkpatrick would be redundant.

“Okay, so if they want a pass-rusher, why Lewis, and not Coples?”

Because Coples just isn’t the fire-breathing pass-rusher he’s reputed to be. Watch his tape. He’s good against the run, but he just isn’t explosive and has no polished pass-rushing moves. Furthermore, at the rate that he’s growing into his lanky, 6-6 frame, we’re talking about a guy who might be 310 lbs. in a few years. If there’s one thing the Seahawks have plenty of, it’s big run-stoppers. They currently have a whopping 14 sacks, and beyond 30-year old Chris Clemons’ team-leading 5 sacks, no other Seahawk has more than one. They sorely need a young, freak athlete like Lewis coming off the edge. Lewis is much more athletic and intense than Coples, and would be a great fit as the Elephant in Seattle’s flexing, 4-3/3-4 scheme. He’s rated by many as a late-first prospect right now, but after Lewis gets done tearing the Combine a new one, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a 2012 NFL Mock Draft that doesn’t include him in the top 15 by next April.

12. Philadelphia Eagles- Zach Brown OLB North Carolina   The last linebacker that the Eagles drafted in the first round was Jerry Robinson, all the way back in 1979, so I’m hesitant to mock a LB to them in the face of such a historical trend…but I will. The glaring need at the position is visible from space, and the Eagles should exhaust every resource to find upgrades this offseason. If I’m the Eagles, I sign a free agent MLB like E.J. Henderson or Dan Connor the minute the market opens, then turn right around and grab Zach Brown in April.

Brown has been a demon for the Tar Heels this season. He leads the team in sacks with 5.5 (Quinton who?), to go along with 71 tackles, 2 forced fumbles and 2 interceptions. After his phenomenal speed and athleticism go on display at the Combine, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drafted even higher than this. A sideline-to-sideline whirlwind capable of throwing a blanket over tight ends, Brown could be exactly what the Eagles thought they were getting in 2010 free agency bust Ernie Sims.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama (Jr.)   It’s tough to find a 2012 NFL mock draft that doesn’t have the Bucs selecting Alfonzo Dennard these days, which means, like every other “chalk” pick in recent drafts (think Mark Ingram/Miami, Nick Fairley/Tennessee, Ryan Kerrigan/Tampa Bay in the ’11 Draft), it’s not going to happen.

This is probably Ronde Barber’s last season, so I can buy Tampa Bay taking a corner in the first round, but Dennard in the top 15? I see Dennard as a late first round prospect (if that), and it looks like the Bucs will be drafting higher than that range. If Kirkpatrick is still on the board, he should be the pick. He and Dennard are actually a lot alike. Both are physical corners that are effective in the bump-and-run, making them good fits in the Tampa-2 scheme. Both also have iffy ball skills. The difference is that Kirkpatrick is nearly half a foot taller and more athletic. Advantage, Kirkpatrick.

GM Mark Dominik seems to be all about building through the draft, but if he decides to address the CB position in free agency with a risk/reward guy like Rashean Mathis, Tracy Porter or Terrell Thomas, Michael Floyd could be a darkhorse here. Arrelious Benn has struggled to get involved in the offense following last season’s knee injury, and the Bucs could use a big-play threat.

I gotta say, slotting somebody besides Dennard to Tampa Bayin my 2012 NFL Mock Draft feels pretty good. I recommend it.

14. Denver Broncos- Manti Te’o ILB Notre Dame (Jr.)  The whole John Fox/Tim Tebow/read-option thing is so crazy that it just might work…maybe not enough to win the AFC West, but enough to scrape together enough wins to keep them out of the running for one of the top-shelf QBs in this draft…the ones who wouldn’t “be screwed” in a regular offensive scheme.

With Tebow officially a god in Denver and Dre Kirkpatrick off the board in my 2012 NFL mock draft scenario, I’m guessing that the Broncos will target an upgrade for MLB Joe Mays. Mays is very solid against the run, but he’s far from a game-changer. He’s a free agent after this season. His backup, rookie third-rounder Nate Irving, is a guy I liked coming out ofN.C.State. He’s been excellent on kick coverage, but nagging injuries have kept him from making an impact on defense. (Unfortunately, I get the feeling that my last sentence could end up defining Irving’s NFL career.)

There’s some debate as to who the best draft-eligible ILB is this year. Right now, I’m giving the nod to Te’o over Vontaze Burfict (enigmatic/possible head case), Dont’a Hightower (scary injury history) and Luke Kuechly (marginal athlete/Mike Junkin vibe). Te’o is a durable, dependable tone-setter who leads the Irish in tackles (91) and sacks (4.5), to go along with 11 TFL. His good blitzing instincts will appeal to DC Dennis Allen, who, while serving as the D-line coach inNew Orleans, witnessed first-hand the type of havoc an athletic, blitzing MLB (Jonathan Vilma) can cause.

This could be why Alshon can't get separation

15. San Diego Chargers- Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina (Jr.)   In my opinion, the Chargers have the most overrated group of wide receivers in the league. Norv Turner’s offense, which has made productive starters out of editor’s nightmares like Seyi Ajirotutu and Legedu Naanee, makes Malcom Floyd and Patrick Crayton appear better than they really are. Floyd is inconsistent and chronically banged-up. He’s one of those guys who regularly appears on “most underrated” lists to the point of becoming very overrated. Crayton is shot. At 32, I doubt that he’ll be re-signed after this season. I won’t deny Vincent Jackson’s talent, but he’s playing under a one-year deal. If the frugal Chargers hit him with the Franchise tag yet again, there’s going to be trouble. It’s a good bet that Norv Turner is history if the Chargers don’t make the playoffs, so I wouldn’t be surprised if rookie Vincent Brown is the only holdover from this year’s group of WRs when the Chargers break camp in 2012.

At this point, the only way that Jeffery is even drafted this high is if Michael Floyd bombs during predraft interviews and scouts judge Jeffery strictly on his 2010 game tape, because he’s been invisible this season. I understand that he’s handicapped by poor QB play, but his troubles go far beyond that. He’s prone to rapid weight gain, looks lethargic in his route-running and has consistently failed to get seperation. (Over his last four games, his longest reception was for 14 yards!) Right now, he’s just a big guy (6-4/225) who might be able to win a few jump balls for you. If that’s what a team is looking for, why would they burn a first round pick on Jeffery, when they could just grab Appalachian State’s 6-5/225 jumping jack Brian Quick in the third or fourth round?

So why do I have Jeffery at #15? Because I have faith that Chargers’ GM A.J. Smith will flush yet another first round pick down the toilet.

16. Tennessee Titans- David DeCastro OG Stanford (Jr.)   While Chris Johnson’s first half struggles have a lot to do with rust and poor conditioning, he had a valid point when he intimated that the offensive line was also part of the problem. (You have to question the intelligence of a running back who throws his blockers under the bus, but nonetheless, his comments were true.) The Titans have been awful in run-blocking this season, the interior O-line in particular. Guards Leroy Harris and Jake Scott have struggled to move the pile, and Tennesse made a huge mistake when they threw that 5-year, $26.25 million contract at C Eugene Amano.

If DeCastro declares, he will undoubtedly be the first guard selected and would be one of the safer picks in this draft. He could step in immediately at RG in place of impending free agent Jake Scott and provide a huge upgrade.

The Titans have allowed 125 yards rushing per game this season, so a stout run defender like Brandon Thompson or Devon Still could be a possibility here, but I think that DeCastro offers better value.

17. Buffalo Bills- Courtney Upshaw DE/OLB Alabama   The situation at 3-4 OLB is a shambles in Buffalo. The Bills have just 15 sacks this season, with Spencer Johnson (a natural DT) leading the LBs with two. Shawne Merriman is finished, and the Bills might look to get out from under 32-year old Chris Kelsay’s regrettable five-year, $28.2 million contract this offseason. Outside of Anthony Spencer, I’m not seeing a whole lot to get excited about from the 2012 3-4 OLB free agent crop. This will be a crucial need for Buffalo heading into the 2012 NFL Draft.

The Bills hit a home run in the 2011 NFL Draft with Alabama DT Marcell Dareus. I think they could once again look to Nick Saban’s NFL 3-4 prospect factory and select Upshaw, who’s commonly regarded as the best potential 3-4 OLB available. He appears a bit shorter than his listed 6-2, has short arms, and I doubt that his forty time will be anything to write home about, but he’s tenacious, versatile, consistently productive and NFL-ready. I think that Ronnell Lewis’ upside will eventually allow him to overtake Upshaw as the #1 ranked 3-4 OLB in this draft, but Upshaw should be a solid starter at the next level.

18. New York Jets- D.J. Fluker OT Alabama (rSoph.)   I’m a green-blooded Jets fan, so I would like nothing more than to predict a trade up for RG3, but I’m also a realist, so I might as well get used to Mark Sanchez and his one decent game, five lousy games pattern.

Speaking of patterns, after a few games of being merely serviceable, it looks like RT Wayne Hunter is back to his early-season pattern of being completely destroyed by quality edge-rushers . Von Miller kicked sand in his face on Thursday night. Hunter is holding this offense back on a few different levels. The most obvious one being that he simply allows to much pressure on Sanchez. He also doesn’t get the push that’s so crucial to the Ground and Pound, and TE Dustin Keller will never be properly utilized in the passing game as long as he has to hold Hunter’s hand in pass protection. Hunter needs to return to the bench.

Barrett Jones is currently the popular new kid on the block in many 2012 NFL mock drafts, but I see him as a Eric Steinbach-type prospect (not an insult), not a first round OT. I still think that Fluker is the superior prospect, and with this year’s crop of OTs so thin, I’m confident that he’ll be the fourth tackle off the board if he declares as a rSoph. At 6-6/360 335, Fluker is surprisingly nimble (watch his tape vs. Barkevious Mingo), but it’s still hard for him to change direction once he gets that mass moving one way, so inside moves from quicker NFL pass-rushers could always be a problem. However, if your looking for a RT who can obliterate defenders in the running game, look no further. Fluker would be a perfect fit in the Jets offense.

19. New York Giants- Peter Konz C Wisconsin (Jr.)   I’m assuming that the Giants will be on the lookout for players to help shore up the rushing attack this offseason. According to NFL.com’s offensive line statistics, the Giants are the worst in the NFL at rushing up the middle. Through nine games, runs up the gut have accounted for only five first downs (not a misprint), while four runs have resulted in negative yardage. That’s unfathomably bad.

I’ve assumed for a while that Konz would stick around for his Senior year at Wisconsin, and while his recent injury would seem to make that scenario more likely, I’m starting to think that it could just as likely have the opposite effect. Konz has had reoccuring issues with his ankles throughout his career, so he may want to declare now, while he’s considered the best center in the draft, instead of risking another injury next year, which would likely put him well behind Arkansas’ Travis Swanson (absolute monster) in the 2013 NFL Draft center rankings.

After focusing on Konz and Mike Brewster in the Wisconsin/OSU matchup, I can now say, without hesitation, that Konz is the best center in this draft. Brewster will be a solid pro, but Konz is truly dominant. He gets from snap to set (literally) in a blink of an eye, and always seems to be in the process of driving an opponent into the turf. For such a tall center (6-5), he consistently gets the kind of leverage that would make Mike Webster envious. He’s exactly what the doctor ordered for the Giants, and would allow David Baas to move over to LG in place of rapidly declining veteran David Diehl.

Of course, Giants’ GM Jerry Reese is a serial mock draft killer, so don’t be surprised when he pulls the trigger on Michael Floyd next April.

20. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta)- Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame   The Browns will do one of two things in the 2012 NFL Draft: They’ll officially pull the plug on the Colt McCoy era and start over (again) with Matt Barkley, RG3, or Landry Jones…or they will ride with McCoy and dedicate this draft to surrounding him with quality weapons. I’m guessing it’s the latter, so after securing Trent Richardson to be the workhorse runner that is so important during those late-season AFC North battles, this pick will go toward a potential #1 WR in Michael Floyd,  whose excellent RAC ability makes him a natural fit in Pat Shurmur’s WCO.  He owns almost every Irish receiving record worth mentioning, and at 6-3/224, with great speed and strength, he’s the complete package. If not for a disturbing history of alcohol-related arrests, he would contend with Justin Blackmon to be the first WR off the board.

Floyd is definitely boom-or-bust, but Holmgren/Heckert showed no hesitation in taking on risky prospects Phil Taylor and Greg Little in the 2011 NFL Draft, so I have to think that they won’t be scared off by Floyd’s transgressions.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)- Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois (Jr.)   The Bengals boast a deep, quality defensive line, so there’s no obvious need here. However, there isn’t a truly dominant pass-rusher on the depth chart. Carlos Dunlap has the potential to be that guy, but he’s very undisciplined and strikes me as a terminal tease. Current sack leader Frostee Rucker (4 sacks) was recently put on I.R. and is an inpending free agent. Robert Geathers has 3 sacks in his last 23 starts. With two first round picks, why shouldn’t the Bengals roll the bones on a potentially dominant sack artist?

Mercilus is undoubtedly the best prospect on the board at this point. He has the ideal frame for a 4-3 DE (a long 6-4/265), a relentless motor and an explosive first step. I’m surprised that so many still seem hesitant to include him in the first round of their 2012 NFL mock draft. How can you not? He’s only leading the nation in sacks (12.5) and forced fumbles (7), while ranking fourth in TFL (17.5). All of this in a conference reknowned for it’s quality offensive linemen. The only knock on Mercilus is the dreaded, one-year-wonder tag, but that stigma didn’t prevent Nick Fairley or Jason Pierre-Paul from landing in the top 20. Potentially dominant pass-rushers are worth their weight in gold on draft day, so I’d be more surprised if he fell out of the first round than if he landed in the top 10, a la Aldon Smith.

22. Cincinnati Bengals- Lamar Miller RB Miami, Fla. (rSoph.)    I have a feeling that the wheels will fall off Cedric Benson any day now, and it doesn’t look like there will be much better options available in free agency. If the Bengals want to stay on an upward arc, it’s imperative that they come out of this draft with a quality runner for Andy Dalton to lean on.

If I’m a Bengals fan, I’m praying that they package some picks in a trade up for Trent Richardson. The addition of a multi-purpose horse like Richardson would give Cincinnati the most explosive young offense in the AFC. I’m not projecting trades (yet), so the Bengals settle for Miller, who is no slouch in the “upside” department himself. An elite combination of speed and power, Miller could be the home run hitter that bring this offense to the next level.

23. Detroit Lions- Mike Adams OT Ohio State   No more getting cute with the Lions’ first round pick for me. They have to go offensive line, and if Adams is considered a reach, so be it. Looking at this year’s crop of OTs, there’s Kalil, Martin, Reiff, (maybe) Fluker, Adams…and then two steps off of a cliff. If a team wants a tackle who could start as a rookie, they’ll have to act quickly.

By the time the Combine is over, Adams could actually go higher than this. Lost amid the hoopla surrounding the OSU/tattoo scandal (which seems almost cute in comparison to what’s happening at Penn State) is that Adams was All-BIG 10 in 2010 and a fast-rising NFL prospect. That hasn’t changed. At a nimble 6-8/320,Adamsis the prototype, and he has continued to play well overall following his suspension. This could be a steal for Detroit.

24. Chicago Bears- Quinton Coples DE North Carolina   In Lovie Smith’s defensive scheme, it’s entirely up to the front four to get to the QB, so any cracks in the foundation of the defensive line should be addressed quickly. Starting DEs Julius Peppers and Israel Idoinje are getting some age on them (both turn 32 next year). Idoinje has regressed a bit after a great 2010 season and is in the final year of his contract. Backups Corey Wootton and Nick Reed are not starting material. Coples’ slide ends in Chicago, where he could be a potential replacement for Idoinje at LDE, or even challenge at UT, where Henry Melton has faded since a hot start, and Amobi Okoye is an impending free agent.

25. Houston Texans- Mohamed Sanu WR Rutgers (Jr.)  Andre Johnson is quietly going into his tenth season and is injury-plagued. Kevin Walter is a try hard, Johnny-on-the-spot guy, but, ultimately, very average. He’s also going into his tenth season. Gary Kubiak seems to be losing patience with disappointing fifth-year speedster Jacoby Jones, whose production hasn’t matched the 3-year, $10.5 million deal the Texans threw at him in July. The fact that GM Rick Smith actually gave up a draft pick for 37-year old Derrick Mason (who was going to be cut by the Jets anyway) underlines the need for quality depth. The Texans could really use an explosive threat like Sanu at #2 WR. At 6-2/215, Sanu combines the quickness of a smaller receiver with the size, leaping ability and sticky hands to be a red-zone threat. Mature, versatile and consistent, he’s a guy I could see climbing draft boards into the late first round, especially if issues with Alshon Jeffery and Michael Floyd turn off a few teams.

26. Dallas Cowboys- Devon Still DE Penn State   With the emergence of DeMarco Murray, a return to health from a few key players, and a very favorable second-half schedule (@WAS/MIA/@ARI/NYG/@TB/PHI), I think that the Cowboys will eventually overtake the Giants (whose remaining schedule stiffens considerably) in the NFC East.

The Cowboys’ rush defense has gotten worse as this season has progressed and the three-man D-line makes very few impact plays. 32-year old LDE Kenyon Coleman (who seems to follow DC Rob Ryan everywhere he goes) is in decline and needs to be replaced soon. Devon Still has emerged as the best of an uninspiring crop of DTs with a dominant Senior year for the Nittany Lions. He’s incredibly powerful, with great size (6-5/310) and ability to anchor vs. the run. He would fit perfectly as a two-gap 3-4 DE in Ryan’s scheme, and could even spell undersized NT Jay Ratliff on occasion.

27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans)- Andre Branch DE/OLB Clemson   I’m going to go out on a very short limb and guess that the Pats may want to upgrade the defense this offseason…the pass-rush and strong safety spots in particular. 32-year old Andre Carter is playing under a one-year deal and ’10 second-rounder Jermaine Cunningham has been a complete bust, so finding a RDE/3-4 OLB type should be a priority. This pick came down to Branch and Marshall’s Vinny Curry. I love Curry’s motor and ability to get into the backfield, but it’s all about versatility in Belichick’s defense, and that’s where Branch has a decided advantage. Branch can set the edge more effectively than Curry and as a former linebacker, has more experience dropping into coverage.

28. New England Patriots- Mark Barron SS Alabama   Barron may be a bit of a reach here, but I don’t care. Sergio Brown…Josh Barrett…Ross Ventrone…Sterling Moore…the need for a serviceable partner for Patrick Chung has reached Code Red in New England. Barron has good size (6-2/215) and is a great leader. His physical, disciplined game would be a refreshing contrast to former starter Brandon Meriweather, who never met an assignment he couldn’t blow. Don’t underestimate Barron’s experience in the 3-4 defense under Belichick’s buddy, Nick Saban, as a potential deciding factor when the Pats address the safety position.

29. Baltimore Ravens- Vontaze Burfict ILB Arizona State (Jr.)   Ray Lewis is approaching the finish line of his H.O.F. career and inside partner Jameel McClain is playing under a one year tender, so ILB could be an urgent need by April. Burfict has top ten talent, but as he has tried to rein in his emotions this season to avoid the penalties that have plagued him throughout his career, his performance has suffered. Still, he offers great potential, and Ozzie Newsome is a brave GM who always seems to have the net ready to catch a falling, high-upside prospect on draft day (Jimmy Smith, Sergio Kindle, Terrence Cody, Michael Oher, etc.).

30. San Francisco 49ers- Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina (Jr.)   NFL Defensive Coordinator of the Year Vic Fangio has done an amazing job this season, but the cornerback spot opposite Carlos Rogers has been problematic. Nickel corner Tarell Brown has struggled as a starter in place of Shawntae Spencer, who has really fallen from favor under the new regime (recent healthy scratch). Rookie Chris Culliver shows promise, but more reinforcements are needed at this position, especially with Rogers headed toward free agency. Gilmore is strong in run support, has a nose for the ball and offers the kind of size (6-1/195) that Fangio likes in his corners.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers- Brandon Thompson DT Clemson   Casey Hampton is still an effective run-stuffer, but he has struggled with a shoulder injury this season. At 34 years old and scheduled for free agency after next season, his great career in Pittsburgh is nearing it’s end. The Steelers traditionally like to find the heirs to aging veterans a year or two ahead of time, so I’m thinking they draft Thompson to apprentice underHampton for a year before he takes over the all-important 3-4 anchor position in 2013. Some see Thompson as a 4-3 nose or even a 3-tech, but I really like him as a 3-4 NT. At 6-2/310 (and room to grow), with a powerful base and thick frame, he’s roughly the same size as Hampton was coming out of Texas (before he filled out to his current 325). Thompson gets off the ball in a flash and wins the leverage battles, causing the kind of disruption that stats don’t account for. A consistent, good-character, four-year starter, Thompson is an excellent value in the late first.

32. Green Bay Packers- Brandon Jenkins DE/OLB Florida State (Jr.)   The only hole in the Packers’ starting lineup is the 3-4 OLB spot opposite Clay Matthews. Jenkins’ production has fallen off this season after a monster Soph. campaign in Tallahassee. He has put on fifteen pounds over the last year in order to better withstand the rigors of a full-time DE role, and it seems to have compromised his speed. If he gets back down to the 250 lb. range, he could  the pass-rushing presence that would finally balance the Packers’ defense.